Hammarby IF 2:0 GAIS: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 16:30

Full time

Match report · Allsvenskan

Hammarby IF Home 3.00 xG

GAIS Away 1.01 xG

20 The scoreline reflected the chances

Hammarby IF were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 60%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Hammarby IF's attack: 3.00 xG against 2.17 projected (+0.83).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Hammarby IF: 60% What happened
Draw: 23%
GAIS: 17%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Hammarby IF 2.17 3.00 +0.83

GAIS 1.15 1.01 -0.14

Hammarby IF produced 0.83 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Hammarby IF GAIS

Shots: 28; 9
On target: 7; 1
Inside the box: 18; 3
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.11

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Hammarby IF

2.77 xG created 0.74 xGA

W 2.48 created, 1.02 conceded against IF Elfsborg
W 1.52 created, 1.12 conceded against Kalmar FF
W 3.32 created, 0.71 conceded against Degerfors IF
D 2.32 created, 0.80 conceded against IF Brommapojkarna
W 3.17 created, 0.38 conceded against BK Häcken
W 3.78 created, 0.42 conceded against Kalmar FF

GAIS

2.06 xG created 1.33 xGA

W 1.16 created, 1.22 conceded against Kalmar FF
W 1.83 created, 2.21 conceded against IF Elfsborg
L 1.24 created, 1.92 conceded against AIK
D 2.97 created, 1.49 conceded against Halmstads BK
W 3.81 created, 0.90 conceded against Halmstads BK
L 1.35 created, 0.22 conceded against Malmö FF

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Hammarby IF: 0 won · 0 drawn · 3 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged1 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Hammarby IF against GAIS before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
GAIS 2+ goals	3.75	+21.5%	Lost
GAIS to win	7.00	+16.2%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.75	+14.9%	Lost
GAIS to score	1.57	+11.9%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.57	+4.7%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.17	+2.5%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Hammarby IF	60.3%	64.9%	−4.5 pp	1.66
Draw	23.1%	21.7%	+1.4 pp	4.34
GAIS	16.6%	13.4%	+3.2 pp	6.03

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Hammarby IF to score	90.5%	88.1%	+2.4 pp	1.10
Hammarby IF not to score	9.5%	11.9%	−2.4 pp	10.55
GAIS to score	71.2%	58.9%	+12.3 pp	1.40
GAIS not to score	28.8%	41.1%	−12.3 pp	3.47
Both teams to score	65.7%	53.3%	+12.3 pp	1.52
Both teams not to score	34.3%	46.7%	−12.3 pp	2.91
Hammarby IF 2+ goals	66.2%	64.5%	+1.7 pp	1.51
Hammarby IF at most 1 goal	33.8%	35.5%	−1.7 pp	2.96
GAIS 2+ goals	32.4%	25.0%	+7.4 pp	3.09
GAIS at most 1 goal	67.6%	75.0%	−7.4 pp	1.48
Over 1.5 goals	87.8%	81.1%	+6.7 pp	1.14
Under 1.5 goals	12.2%	18.9%	−6.7 pp	8.21
Over 2.5 goals	66.6%	59.9%	+6.7 pp	1.50
Under 2.5 goals	33.4%	40.1%	−6.7 pp	3.00

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Hammarby IF sample: 20 matches
GAIS sample: 20 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 days before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.