What the chances were worth
xG analytics, team and player statistics, match probabilities and value betting across 30 European leagues.
Built from shot-level data using competition-specific Poisson and Dixon–Coles models.
- Competitions
- 30 European leagues covered
- Next: Wed 7 October
- 1 match with a projection
Next matches Wednesday 7 October
Full schedule →Across Europe
Leagues differ in strength; these figures are not adjusted for it.Best xG difference
+1.41 xGD per match
Bodø/Glimt Eliteserien · Over 21 matches with xG xG difference tablePoints vs expected points
+10.1 points vs xPts
Shamrock Rovers Premier Division (Ireland) · 48.9 xPts, 59 points: 10.1 above Expected points tableWhat the numbers say
Scoring above and below their chances
FC Lugano have scored 11.74 more than their chances were worth, the widest gap in any league we cover.
Best recent xG form
Expected goal difference per match over each club's last five matches with xG, with at least four in the last 35 days.
Most open match this week
The model expects more goals here than in any other match this week.
Results that defied the chances this week
No result in the last week strayed far from its chances.
Teams to Watch
Strong underlying form
Viking FK Eliteserien+1.97 xGD per match
Last 4 · 11.83 xG for, 3.96 against
Results haven't followed performances
NK Celje PrvaLiga (Slovenia)6.5 xPts vs 1 point
Last 4 matches
Finishing above their chances
Young Boys Swiss Super League31 goals vs 20.52 xG
This season · 9 matches
Defence tightening
IFK Mariehamn Veikkausliiga2.05 xGA per match, last 4
vs 2.60 over the 19 matches before
Explore Leagues
View all 30 competitions →Where model and market disagree
View all opportunities →No fresh prices. The last sweep was at 10 October, 12:00; a price past its refresh allowance isn't shown here.
Expected value is the return per unit staked if the model's probability is right: over many bets, not this one.
Value is an average over many bets. Any single selection can and often will lose. Please gamble responsibly. Responsible gambling
Model track record
See the complete track record →Since 20 August 2026
- Settled qualified selections
- 876 across 412 matches
- Won–lost–void
- 295 won, 572 lost, 9 void
- Units
- −94.36u
- ROI
- −10.8%
Equal stake of one unit per qualified selection.
Every qualified selection — a fresh bookmaker price, full model data, a market with measured skill and an edge from 5% up to but not including 40%, at the model's last evaluation before kickoff — at the price paired with that evaluation, one unit each. Voids return the stake. Prices captured after the evaluation, and selections without a price, are never counted.
Fantasy Premier League
Open the FPL dashboard →xG-driven projections for Gameweek 6.
-
Highest projected
Bukayo Saka4.57 projected points
Arsenal
-
Best value
Bobby Thomas3.40 points per £m
4.0m
-
Differential
Thierno Barry13.7 projected over 5 rounds
8.3% owned
The projection under all three was replayed against gameweek 2 after it was played: an average miss of 1.617 points a player, against 1.842 for “predict what he has averaged so far”, over 456 players. What is not measured is named on every page in the section. How the projection works →
Built to show its work
-
Shot-level xG data for every competition that has it, with coverage marked on every league.
Coverage by league -
Competition-specific models: every league is fitted on its own data.
How a league is fitted -
Prices recorded before kickoff, and never backfilled.
Every priced selection -
Historical performance published, including the losses.
The track record -
Methodology publicly documented.
The full methodology
From a shot to a price, in three steps
A positive number here is a statement about an average over many bets, not about the match in front of you. Most of football is noise, and the edge is small even when it is real.
Read the full methodology-
01
Fit the competition
Each competition gets attacking and defensive ratings from its own data.
-
02
Price every scoreline
Scoring rates become scoreline and home/draw/away probabilities.
-
03
Compare with the book
Remove the bookmaker's margin and compare the market's probability with the model's.