IF Elfsborg 2:0 Degerfors IF: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 15:00

Full time

Match report · Allsvenskan

IF Elfsborg Home 1.63 xG

Degerfors IF Away 0.18 xG

20 The scoreline reflected the chances

IF Elfsborg were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 51%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Degerfors IF's attack: 0.18 xG against 1.19 projected (−1.01).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

IF Elfsborg: 51% What happened
Draw: 27%
Degerfors IF: 22%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

IF Elfsborg 1.83 1.63 -0.20

Degerfors IF 1.19 0.18 -1.01

Degerfors IF produced 1.01 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

IF Elfsborg Degerfors IF

Shots: 13; 6
On target: 5; 1
Inside the box: 9; 3
xG per shot: 0.13; 0.03

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

IF Elfsborg

2.04 xG created 2.02 xGA

L 1.02 created, 2.48 conceded against Hammarby IF
L 2.21 created, 1.83 conceded against GAIS
L 2.44 created, 3.67 conceded against IK Sirius
W 0.92 created, 1.28 conceded against Malmö FF
W 3.47 created, 1.87 conceded against Mjällby AIF
W 2.19 created, 0.99 conceded against Västerås SK

Degerfors IF

1.21 xG created 2.23 xGA

L 0.71 created, 3.32 conceded against Hammarby IF
L 1.18 created, 2.13 conceded against Djurgårdens IF
L 1.92 created, 2.21 conceded against IFK Göteborg
W 0.70 created, 2.53 conceded against Malmö FF
W 1.69 created, 1.13 conceded against IFK Göteborg
L 1.08 created, 2.05 conceded against IF Brommapojkarna

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

IF Elfsborg: 2 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged1 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on IF Elfsborg against Degerfors IF before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Degerfors IF 2+ goals	4.00	+35.5%	Lost
Degerfors IF to win	6.00	+31.7%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.91	+22.1%	Lost
Degerfors IF to score	1.62	+17.0%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.80	+7.9%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.25	+5.2%	Won
Draw	3.80	+1.5%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
IF Elfsborg	51.3%	59.7%	−8.4 pp	1.95
Draw	26.7%	24.7%	+2.0 pp	3.74
Degerfors IF	22.0%	15.6%	+6.3 pp	4.56

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
IF Elfsborg to score	86.2%	84.2%	+2.0 pp	1.16
IF Elfsborg not to score	13.8%	15.8%	−2.0 pp	7.26
Degerfors IF to score	72.4%	57.7%	+14.8 pp	1.38
Degerfors IF not to score	27.6%	42.3%	−14.8 pp	3.63
Both teams to score	63.9%	50.0%	+13.9 pp	1.56
Both teams not to score	36.1%	50.0%	−13.9 pp	2.77
IF Elfsborg 2+ goals	56.5%	55.7%	+0.8 pp	1.77
IF Elfsborg at most 1 goal	43.5%	44.3%	−0.8 pp	2.30
Degerfors IF 2+ goals	33.9%	23.4%	+10.5 pp	2.95
Degerfors IF at most 1 goal	66.1%	76.6%	−10.5 pp	1.51
Over 1.5 goals	84.2%	75.0%	+9.2 pp	1.19
Under 1.5 goals	15.8%	25.0%	−9.2 pp	6.33
Over 2.5 goals	59.9%	52.6%	+7.3 pp	1.67
Under 2.5 goals	40.1%	47.4%	−7.3 pp	2.50

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
IF Elfsborg sample: 20 matches
Degerfors IF sample: 20 matches
Computed: 5 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.