IFK Göteborg 1:0 Örgryte IS: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 16:30

Full time

Match report · Allsvenskan

IFK Göteborg Home 2.01 xG

Örgryte IS Away 0.98 xG

10 The scoreline reflected the chances

IFK Göteborg were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 65%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was IFK Göteborg's attack: 2.01 xG against 2.60 projected (−0.59). Örgryte IS produced 0.98 xG against 1.33 projected (−0.35).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

IFK Göteborg: 65% What happened
Draw: 20%
Örgryte IS: 15%

Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

IFK Göteborg 2.60 2.01 -0.59

Örgryte IS 1.33 0.98 -0.35

IFK Göteborg produced 0.59 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

IFK Göteborg Örgryte IS

Shots: 20; 13
On target: 5; 5
Inside the box: 16; 6
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.08

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

IFK Göteborg

2.25 xG created 1.89 xGA

L 1.81 created, 3.30 conceded against Malmö FF
W 3.80 created, 0.49 conceded against IF Brommapojkarna
L 1.85 created, 2.97 conceded against IK Sirius
W 2.21 created, 1.92 conceded against Degerfors IF
W 2.71 created, 0.99 conceded against Kalmar FF
L 1.13 created, 1.69 conceded against Degerfors IF

Örgryte IS

1.64 xG created 2.23 xGA

D 0.77 created, 0.73 conceded against Djurgårdens IF
L 0.92 created, 3.24 conceded against Västerås SK
W 2.36 created, 1.35 conceded against AIK
L 2.39 created, 1.96 conceded against AIK
L 1.29 created, 3.40 conceded against IF Brommapojkarna
D 2.09 created, 2.67 conceded against Halmstads BK

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

IFK Göteborg: 1 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Örgryte IS 2:3 IFK Göteborg 19/05/2026 xG 0.69 – 2.30

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on IFK Göteborg against Örgryte IS before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	1.62	+18.9%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.57	+17.4%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.18	+6.2%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
IFK Göteborg	65.1%	57.9%	+7.2 pp	1.54
Draw	19.6%	23.4%	−3.8 pp	5.10
Örgryte IS	15.3%	18.7%	−3.4 pp	6.53

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	72.7%	58.9%	+13.8 pp	1.38
Both teams not to score	27.3%	41.1%	−13.8 pp	3.66
Over 1.5 goals	93.0%	79.2%	+13.8 pp	1.08
Under 1.5 goals	7.0%	20.8%	−13.8 pp	14.19
Over 2.5 goals	77.6%	58.2%	+19.3 pp	1.29
Under 2.5 goals	22.4%	41.8%	−19.3 pp	4.45

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
IFK Göteborg sample: 20 matches
Örgryte IS sample: 17 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.