IK Sirius 0:3 BK Häcken: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Friday, 21/08/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · Allsvenskan

IK Sirius Home 0.64 xG

BK Häcken Away 1.57 xG

03 The scoreline reflected the chances

IK Sirius were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. BK Häcken won 3–0. The biggest difference was IK Sirius's attack: 0.64 xG against 1.99 projected (−1.35).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

IK Sirius: 49%
Draw: 25%
BK Häcken: 26% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

IK Sirius 1.99 0.64 -1.35

BK Häcken 1.45 1.57 +0.12

IK Sirius produced 1.35 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

IK Sirius BK Häcken

Shots: 9; 12
On target: 2; 4
Inside the box: 7; 6
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.13

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

IK Sirius

2.58 xG created 1.32 xGA

W 1.01 created, 0.60 conceded against IF Brommapojkarna
W 3.67 created, 2.44 conceded against IF Elfsborg
W 2.97 created, 1.85 conceded against IFK Göteborg
W 3.10 created, 0.97 conceded against Halmstads BK
D 2.16 created, 0.55 conceded against IF Brommapojkarna
L 2.56 created, 1.51 conceded against Mjällby AIF

BK Häcken

1.70 xG created 1.48 xGA

L 1.78 created, 1.48 conceded against Örgryte IS
W 1.40 created, 1.12 conceded against Halmstads BK
D 2.96 created, 0.29 conceded against AIK
D 0.92 created, 1.62 conceded against Kalmar FF
L 0.38 created, 3.17 conceded against Hammarby IF
W 2.78 created, 1.21 conceded against Halmstads BK

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

IK Sirius: 1 won · 2 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

1 opportunity flagged1 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on IK Sirius against BK Häcken before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 1.5 goals	1.13	+0.2%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
IK Sirius	49.2%	52.0%	−2.8 pp	2.03
Draw	25.2%	24.0%	+1.2 pp	3.97
BK Häcken	25.6%	24.0%	+1.6 pp	3.90

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
IK Sirius to score	88.4%	86.4%	+2.0 pp	1.13
IK Sirius not to score	11.6%	13.6%	−2.0 pp	8.65
BK Häcken to score	79.1%	75.0%	+4.1 pp	1.26
BK Häcken not to score	20.9%	25.0%	−4.1 pp	4.79
Both teams to score	71.2%	66.3%	+4.9 pp	1.40
Both teams not to score	28.8%	33.7%	−4.9 pp	3.47
IK Sirius 2+ goals	61.3%	60.8%	+0.5 pp	1.63
IK Sirius at most 1 goal	38.7%	39.2%	−0.5 pp	2.58
BK Häcken 2+ goals	43.7%	42.3%	+1.4 pp	2.29
BK Häcken at most 1 goal	56.3%	57.7%	−1.4 pp	1.78
Over 1.5 goals	89.1%	84.2%	+4.9 pp	1.12
Under 1.5 goals	10.9%	15.8%	−4.9 pp	9.15
Over 2.5 goals	68.9%	65.2%	+3.8 pp	1.45
Under 2.5 goals	31.1%	34.8%	−3.8 pp	3.22

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
IK Sirius sample: 20 matches
BK Häcken sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.