Västerås SK 0:0 Kalmar FF: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 14:00

Full time

Match report · Allsvenskan

Västerås SK Home 0.98 xG

Kalmar FF Away 1.11 xG

00 The chances were evenly matched

Västerås SK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was Västerås SK's attack: 0.98 xG against 1.67 projected (−0.69). Kalmar FF produced 1.11 xG against 1.44 projected (−0.33).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Västerås SK: 41%
Draw: 28% What happened
Kalmar FF: 31%

Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Västerås SK 1.67 0.98 -0.69

Kalmar FF 1.44 1.11 -0.33

Västerås SK produced 0.69 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Västerås SK Kalmar FF

Shots: 9; 17
On target: 2; 5
Inside the box: 5; 10
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.07

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Västerås SK

2.31 xG created 2.02 xGA

L 3.42 created, 1.52 conceded against IFK Göteborg
W 4.21 created, 0.91 conceded against Halmstads BK
W 3.24 created, 0.92 conceded against Örgryte IS
L 1.32 created, 3.93 conceded against Djurgårdens IF
W 0.67 created, 2.64 conceded against Djurgårdens IF
L 0.99 created, 2.19 conceded against IF Elfsborg

Kalmar FF

1.01 xG created 1.83 xGA

L 1.12 created, 1.52 conceded against Hammarby IF
D 1.23 created, 1.55 conceded against Malmö FF
W 0.68 created, 0.49 conceded against Mjällby AIF
D 1.62 created, 0.92 conceded against BK Häcken
L 0.99 created, 2.71 conceded against IFK Göteborg
L 0.42 created, 3.78 conceded against Hammarby IF

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Västerås SK: 1 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Kalmar FF 0:1 Västerås SK 05/04/2026

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged0 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Västerås SK against Kalmar FF before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.62	+9.1%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.75	+8.8%	Lost
Västerås SK to win	2.60	+7.8%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.22	+4.5%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Västerås SK	41.4%	36.2%	+5.3 pp	2.41
Draw	27.7%	27.7%	−0.0 pp	3.62
Kalmar FF	30.9%	36.2%	−5.3 pp	3.24

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	67.6%	57.7%	+9.9 pp	1.48
Both teams not to score	32.4%	42.3%	−9.9 pp	3.08
Over 1.5 goals	85.5%	76.6%	+8.9 pp	1.17
Under 1.5 goals	14.5%	23.4%	−8.9 pp	6.90
Over 2.5 goals	62.2%	53.9%	+8.2 pp	1.61
Under 2.5 goals	37.8%	46.1%	−8.2 pp	2.64

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Västerås SK sample: 14 matches
Kalmar FF sample: 13 matches
Computed: 6 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 days before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.