Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 17:00
Full timeSC Rheindorf Altach 1:2 TSV Hartberg
SC Rheindorf Altach were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. TSV Hartberg won 2–1. The biggest difference was SC Rheindorf Altach's attack: 1.91 xG against 1.43 projected (+0.48). TSV Hartberg produced 1.22 xG against 0.88 projected (+0.34).
Goals
- 16' Angelo Gattermayer TSV Hartberg · 0.66 xG chance 0–1
- 53' Ousmane Diawara SC Rheindorf Altach · 0.09 xG chance 1–1
- 90' Benjamin Markuš TSV Hartberg · 0.21 xG chance 1–2
The model against the result
- SC Rheindorf Altach
- 49%
- Draw
- 31%
- TSV Hartberg
- 20% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
SC Rheindorf Altach produced 0.48 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 18
- 11
- On target
- 5
- 5
- Inside the box
- 17
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.10
- 0.12
- Open play xG
- 1.41
- 1.20
- Set-piece xG
- 0.45
- 0.11
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.87 for SC Rheindorf Altach and 1.34 for TSV Hartberg.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
29 shots · 3.17 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- SC Rheindorf Altach
- TSV Hartberg
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.61 xG created 1.12 xGA
- L 0.93 created, 0.71 conceded against Wolfsberger AC
- D 0.76 created, 0.92 conceded against Grazer AK 1902
- W 3.78 created, 1.11 conceded against SV Ried
- L 1.29 created, 1.63 conceded against SK Rapid Wien
- W 1.48 created, 0.84 conceded against WSG Tirol
- L 1.44 created, 1.53 conceded against SK Sturm Graz
0.73 xG created 1.96 xGA
- L 0.28 created, 0.85 conceded against Austria Wien
- L 1.30 created, 1.79 conceded against SK Sturm Graz
- W 1.05 created, 1.84 conceded against Red Bull Salzburg
- L 0.73 created, 4.11 conceded against Red Bull Salzburg
- L 0.22 created, 2.20 conceded against SK Sturm Graz
- L 0.79 created, 0.99 conceded against Austria Wien
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.95 | +14.3% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 3.75 | +7.2% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.40 | +6.0% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Rheindorf Altach | 48.6% | 50.7% | −2.1 pp | 2.06 |
| Draw | 31.2% | 27.6% | +3.6 pp | 3.21 |
| TSV Hartberg | 20.2% | 21.7% | −1.4 pp | 4.94 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 50.2% | 53.3% | −3.1 pp | 1.99 |
| Both teams not to score | 49.8% | 46.7% | +3.1 pp | 2.01 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.4% | 75.0% | −3.6 pp | 1.40 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28.6% | 25.0% | +3.6 pp | 3.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.4% | 51.3% | −9.9 pp | 2.42 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58.6% | 48.7% | +9.9 pp | 1.71 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SC Rheindorf Altach sample
- 20 matches
- TSV Hartberg sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 8 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.