SV Ried 1:0 Grazer AK 1902: xG & match report · Austrian Bundesliga

Friday, 21/08/2026 at 19:30

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Match report · Austrian Bundesliga

SV Ried Home 1.75 xG · 16 shots

Grazer AK 1902 Away 1.24 xG · 15 shots

10 The scoreline reflected the chances

SV Ried were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. They won 1–0. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.

Goals

45' Niama Pape Sissoko (pen.) SV Ried · 0.82 xG chance 1–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

SV Ried: 47% What happened
Draw: 30%
Grazer AK 1902: 23%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

SV Ried 1.54 1.75 +0.21

Grazer AK 1902 1.06 1.24 +0.18

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

SV Ried Grazer AK 1902

Shots: 16; 15
On target: 3; 3
Inside the box: 9; 8
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.05
Open play xG: 0.33; 0.50
Set-piece xG: 0.52; 0.32
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.86 for SV Ried and 0.83 for Grazer AK 1902.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

31 shots · 2.49 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

SV Ried
Grazer AK 1902
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

SV Ried

1.35 xG created 1.86 xGA

L 1.11 created, 3.78 conceded against SC Rheindorf Altach
W 1.73 created, 0.34 conceded against Wolfsberger AC
L 0.50 created, 2.17 conceded against SK Rapid Wien
D 2.92 created, 0.78 conceded against SC Austria Lustenau
L 1.07 created, 1.77 conceded against SK Rapid Wien
L 0.76 created, 2.32 conceded against LASK

Grazer AK 1902

1.35 xG created 1.72 xGA

W 1.73 created, 0.45 conceded against WSG Tirol
D 0.92 created, 0.76 conceded against SC Rheindorf Altach
W 2.06 created, 0.78 conceded against FC Blau Weiss Linz
L 0.99 created, 2.31 conceded against LASK
W 1.65 created, 0.56 conceded against SC Austria Lustenau
L 0.76 created, 5.49 conceded against SK Rapid Wien

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

SV Ried: 1 won · 2 drawn · 1 lost

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
SV Ried sample: 20 matches
Grazer AK 1902 sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.