Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 15:30
Full timeSC Freiburg 5:0 Borussia M'gladbach
SC Freiburg were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. They won 5–0. The biggest difference was Borussia M'gladbach's attack: 0.19 xG against 1.15 projected (−0.96). SC Freiburg produced 2.60 xG against 1.69 projected (+0.91).
Goals
- 23' Yannick Engelhardt SC Freiburg · 0.07 xG chance 1–0
- 29' Igor Matanović SC Freiburg · 0.06 xG chance 2–0
- 77' Igor Matanović SC Freiburg · 0.68 xG chance 3–0
- 79' Yannick Engelhardt SC Freiburg · 0.08 xG chance 4–0
- 86' Maximilian Eggestein SC Freiburg · 0.32 xG chance 5–0
The model against the result
- SC Freiburg
- 49% What happened
- Draw
- 28%
- Borussia M'gladbach
- 23%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Borussia M'gladbach produced 0.96 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 19
- 5
- On target
- 9
- 0
- Inside the box
- 12
- 4
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.04
- Open play xG
- 1.76
- 0.13
- Set-piece xG
- 0.58
- 0.08
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.36 for SC Freiburg and 0.21 for Borussia M'gladbach.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
24 shots · 2.55 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- SC Freiburg
- Borussia M'gladbach
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.12 xG created 1.44 xGA
- L 0.76 created, 3.37 conceded against Borussia Dortmund
- D 0.94 created, 0.82 conceded against VfL Wolfsburg
- L 0.41 created, 1.98 conceded against Hamburger SV
- W 1.41 created, 1.24 conceded against RB Leipzig
- W 1.94 created, 0.48 conceded against SV Werder Bremen
- W 1.24 created, 0.77 conceded against SC Paderborn 07
1.42 xG created 2.07 xGA
- D 0.51 created, 1.47 conceded against VfL Wolfsburg
- W 2.20 created, 0.49 conceded against Borussia Dortmund
- L 1.14 created, 2.59 conceded against FC Augsburg
- W 1.20 created, 1.62 conceded against TSG Hoffenheim
- L 1.09 created, 3.96 conceded against RB Leipzig
- L 2.36 created, 2.31 conceded against SV 07 Elversberg
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged0 won6 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.63 | +16.6% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.10 | +15.2% | Lost |
| SC Freiburg at most 1 goal | 2.38 | +13.7% | Lost |
| SC Freiburg not to score | 7.00 | +11.8% | Lost |
| Borussia M'gladbach to win | 4.75 | +9.7% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 5.50 | +1.3% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | 48.8% | 56.9% | −8.1 pp | 2.05 |
| Draw | 28.1% | 23.1% | +5.0 pp | 3.56 |
| Borussia M'gladbach | 23.1% | 20.0% | +3.1 pp | 4.33 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg to score | 84.0% | 86.4% | −2.4 pp | 1.19 |
| SC Freiburg not to score | 16.0% | 13.6% | +2.4 pp | 6.26 |
| Borussia M'gladbach to score | 71.1% | 68.7% | +2.4 pp | 1.41 |
| Borussia M'gladbach not to score | 28.9% | 31.3% | −2.4 pp | 3.46 |
| Both teams to score | 61.4% | 60.8% | +0.6 pp | 1.63 |
| Both teams not to score | 38.6% | 39.2% | −0.6 pp | 2.59 |
| SC Freiburg 2+ goals | 52.1% | 60.8% | −8.6 pp | 1.92 |
| SC Freiburg at most 1 goal | 47.9% | 39.2% | +8.6 pp | 2.09 |
| Borussia M'gladbach 2+ goals | 32.3% | 33.7% | −1.4 pp | 3.10 |
| Borussia M'gladbach at most 1 goal | 67.7% | 66.3% | +1.4 pp | 1.48 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.6% | 82.8% | −1.2 pp | 1.23 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18.4% | 17.2% | +1.2 pp | 5.43 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.6% | 63.6% | −8.0 pp | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.4% | 36.4% | +8.0 pp | 2.25 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SC Freiburg sample
- 20 matches
- Borussia M'gladbach sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 36 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 36 minutes before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.