Blackburn Rovers 2:0 Wrexham: xG & match report · Championship

Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Championship

Blackburn Rovers Home 1.53 xG · 16 shots

Wrexham Away 1.69 xG · 23 shots

20 The chances were evenly matched

Wrexham were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. Blackburn Rovers won 2–0. The biggest difference was Wrexham's attack: 1.69 xG against 1.13 projected (+0.56). Blackburn Rovers produced 1.53 xG against 1.05 projected (+0.48).

Goals

44' Andri Guðjohnsen Blackburn Rovers · 0.17 xG chance 1–0
79' Andri Guðjohnsen Blackburn Rovers · 0.08 xG chance 2–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Blackburn Rovers: 31% What happened
Draw: 34%
Wrexham: 35%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Blackburn Rovers 1.05 1.53 +0.48

Wrexham 1.13 1.69 +0.56

Wrexham produced 0.56 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Blackburn Rovers Wrexham

Shots: 16; 23
On target: 5; 1
Inside the box: 10; 16
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.07
Open play xG: 0.95; 1.02
Set-piece xG: 0.61; 0.71
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.54 for Blackburn Rovers and 1.70 for Wrexham.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

39 shots · 3.28 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Blackburn Rovers
Wrexham
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Blackburn Rovers

1.14 xG created 1.76 xGA

L 1.62 created, 0.66 conceded against Sheffield United
W 1.23 created, 1.67 conceded against Millwall
D 0.59 created, 1.60 conceded against Portsmouth
W 2.42 created, 1.05 conceded against Cardiff City
W 0.15 created, 1.89 conceded against Bristol City
L 0.82 created, 3.68 conceded against West Bromwich Albion

Wrexham

1.01 xG created 1.47 xGA

D 1.35 created, 1.50 conceded against Burnley
L 0.44 created, 2.96 conceded against West Ham United
W 0.54 created, 2.08 conceded against Southampton
D 1.46 created, 0.60 conceded against Derby County
L 0.38 created, 0.94 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
W 1.86 created, 0.72 conceded against Preston North End

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Blackburn Rovers: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 qualified edges flagged3 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Blackburn Rovers against Wrexham before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.30	+12.6%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	3.40	+8.2%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	1.73	+8.2%	Won
Wrexham at most 1 goal	1.53	+5.3%	Won
Wrexham not to score	3.50	+4.1%	Won
Blackburn Rovers at most 1 goal	1.40	+0.4%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Blackburn Rovers	30.9%	31.4%	−0.5 pp	3.23
Draw	34.1%	28.5%	+5.6 pp	2.93
Wrexham	35.0%	40.1%	−5.1 pp	2.86

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Blackburn Rovers to score	67.9%	66.3%	+1.6 pp	1.47
Blackburn Rovers not to score	32.1%	33.7%	−1.6 pp	3.11
Wrexham to score	70.3%	73.1%	−2.9 pp	1.42
Wrexham not to score	29.7%	26.9%	+2.9 pp	3.36
Both teams to score	49.7%	50.0%	−0.3 pp	2.01
Both teams not to score	50.3%	50.0%	+0.3 pp	1.99
Blackburn Rovers 2+ goals	28.3%	33.7%	−5.5 pp	3.54
Blackburn Rovers at most 1 goal	71.7%	66.3%	+5.5 pp	1.39
Wrexham 2+ goals	31.3%	39.2%	−7.9 pp	3.19
Wrexham at most 1 goal	68.7%	60.8%	+7.9 pp	1.46
Over 1.5 goals	68.2%	71.8%	−3.7 pp	1.47
Under 1.5 goals	31.8%	28.2%	+3.7 pp	3.14
Over 2.5 goals	37.4%	45.1%	−7.8 pp	2.68
Under 2.5 goals	62.6%	54.9%	+7.8 pp	1.60

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Blackburn Rovers sample: 20 matches
Wrexham sample: 20 matches
Computed: 29 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.