Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 16:00
Full timeCardiff City 1:0 Birmingham City
Cardiff City were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Cardiff City's attack: 2.36 xG against 1.48 projected (+0.88). Birmingham City produced 0.89 xG against 1.47 projected (−0.58).
Goals
- 32' Yousef Salech Cardiff City · 0.69 xG chance 1–0
The model against the result
- Cardiff City
- 36% What happened
- Draw
- 29%
- Birmingham City
- 35%
Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Projected vs produced
Cardiff City produced 0.88 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 16
- 7
- On target
- 4
- 2
- Inside the box
- 10
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.15
- 0.13
- Open play xG
- 1.29
- 0.83
- Set-piece xG
- 0.34
- 0.05
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.58 for Cardiff City and 0.89 for Birmingham City.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
23 shots · 3.33 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Cardiff City
- Birmingham City
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.26 xG created 1.57 xGA
- D 3.60 created, 1.11 conceded against Stoke City
- L 1.79 created, 0.48 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
- W 2.60 created, 1.26 conceded against Charlton Athletic
- L 1.05 created, 2.42 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
- W 3.67 created, 1.46 conceded against Watford
- D 0.85 created, 2.71 conceded against Middlesbrough
2.02 xG created 1.16 xGA
- L 1.63 created, 1.01 conceded against Norwich City
- W 3.17 created, 1.11 conceded against Derby County
- D 1.23 created, 2.14 conceded against Middlesbrough
- W 2.55 created, 1.05 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
- W 2.24 created, 0.49 conceded against Preston North End
- W 1.30 created, 1.15 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
4 qualified edges flagged3 won1 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.63 | +9.1% | Won |
| Draw | 3.70 | +6.5% | Lost |
| Birmingham City not to score | 5.00 | +1.7% | Won |
| Birmingham City at most 1 goal | 1.83 | +1.6% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff City | 35.9% | 34.9% | +1.0 pp | 2.79 |
| Draw | 28.8% | 25.5% | +3.3 pp | 3.47 |
| Birmingham City | 35.3% | 39.7% | −4.3 pp | 2.83 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff City to score | 79.9% | 78.3% | +1.6 pp | 1.25 |
| Cardiff City not to score | 20.1% | 21.7% | −1.6 pp | 4.98 |
| Birmingham City to score | 79.7% | 81.1% | −1.4 pp | 1.26 |
| Birmingham City not to score | 20.3% | 18.9% | +1.4 pp | 4.92 |
| Both teams to score | 65.3% | 64.5% | +0.8 pp | 1.53 |
| Both teams not to score | 34.7% | 35.5% | −0.8 pp | 2.88 |
| Cardiff City 2+ goals | 45.0% | 46.3% | −1.4 pp | 2.22 |
| Cardiff City at most 1 goal | 55.0% | 53.7% | +1.4 pp | 1.82 |
| Birmingham City 2+ goals | 44.6% | 50.0% | −5.4 pp | 2.24 |
| Birmingham City at most 1 goal | 55.4% | 50.0% | +5.4 pp | 1.80 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.4% | 82.8% | +0.6 pp | 1.20 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16.6% | 17.2% | −0.6 pp | 6.01 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.4% | 63.6% | −5.2 pp | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.6% | 36.4% | +5.2 pp | 2.41 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Cardiff City sample
- 11 matches
- Birmingham City sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 29 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 3 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.