Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 13:30
Full timeCharlton Athletic 1:3 Norwich City
Norwich City were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was Charlton Athletic's attack: 0.79 xG against 1.14 projected (−0.35). Norwich City produced 1.69 xG against 1.35 projected (+0.34).
Goals
- 10' Charlie Kelman Charlton Athletic · 0.14 xG chance 1–0
- 35' Paris Maghoma Norwich City · 0.07 xG chance 1–1
- 50' Mathias Kvistgaarden Norwich City · 0.48 xG chance 1–2
- 76' Ivan Mesík (o.g.) Norwich City 1–3
The model against the result
- Charlton Athletic
- 29%
- Draw
- 31%
- Norwich City
- 40% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Charlton Athletic produced 0.35 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 8
- 17
- On target
- 3
- 5
- Inside the box
- 7
- 9
- xG per shot
- 0.10
- 0.10
- Open play xG
- 0.78
- 1.51
- Set-piece xG
- 0.02
- 0.15
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.79 for Charlton Athletic and 1.69 for Norwich City.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
25 shots · 2.47 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Charlton Athletic
- Norwich City
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.29 xG created 1.57 xGA
- D 0.48 created, 1.10 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
- D 0.82 created, 0.40 conceded against Portsmouth
- L 1.26 created, 2.60 conceded against Cardiff City
- D 1.78 created, 1.47 conceded against Bristol City
- D 2.13 created, 1.08 conceded against Burnley
- L 1.25 created, 2.78 conceded against Watford
0.89 xG created 1.78 xGA
- W 1.01 created, 1.63 conceded against Birmingham City
- L 1.62 created, 2.07 conceded against Middlesbrough
- L 0.69 created, 1.10 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
- L 0.68 created, 2.36 conceded against Swansea City
- L 1.07 created, 2.34 conceded against Southampton
- L 0.29 created, 1.19 conceded against Portsmouth
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 qualified edges flagged0 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.60 | +13.3% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | +7.1% | Lost |
| Norwich City at most 1 goal | 1.73 | +3.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton Athletic | 28.7% | 28.4% | +0.4 pp | 3.48 |
| Draw | 31.5% | 26.0% | +5.5 pp | 3.18 |
| Norwich City | 39.8% | 45.6% | −5.8 pp | 2.51 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton Athletic to score | 70.7% | 68.7% | +2.0 pp | 1.41 |
| Charlton Athletic not to score | 29.3% | 31.3% | −2.0 pp | 3.41 |
| Norwich City to score | 77.0% | 78.3% | −1.3 pp | 1.30 |
| Norwich City not to score | 23.0% | 21.7% | +1.3 pp | 4.34 |
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | 55.7% | +0.5 pp | 1.78 |
| Both teams not to score | 43.7% | 44.3% | −0.5 pp | 2.29 |
| Charlton Athletic 2+ goals | 31.8% | 33.7% | −1.9 pp | 3.14 |
| Charlton Athletic at most 1 goal | 68.2% | 66.3% | +1.9 pp | 1.47 |
| Norwich City 2+ goals | 40.2% | 46.3% | −6.1 pp | 2.49 |
| Norwich City at most 1 goal | 59.8% | 53.7% | +6.1 pp | 1.67 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.4% | 76.2% | −0.8 pp | 1.33 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24.6% | 23.8% | +0.8 pp | 4.06 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.4% | 52.6% | −6.2 pp | 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.6% | 47.4% | +6.2 pp | 1.87 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Charlton Athletic sample
- 20 matches
- Norwich City sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 59 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 hour before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.