Preston North End 1:1 West Bromwich Albion: xG & match report · Championship

Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Championship

Preston North End Home 1.79 xG · 19 shots

West Bromwich Albion Away 2.08 xG · 20 shots

11 West Bromwich Albion had the better chances, but it finished level

West Bromwich Albion were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was West Bromwich Albion's attack: 2.08 xG against 1.29 projected (+0.79). Preston North End produced 1.79 xG against 1.23 projected (+0.56).

Goals

78' Andrew Hughes Preston North End · 0.38 xG chance 1–0
82' Aune Selland Heggebø West Bromwich Albion · 0.36 xG chance 1–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Preston North End: 33%
Draw: 32% What happened
West Bromwich Albion: 36%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Preston North End 1.23 1.79 +0.56

West Bromwich Albion 1.29 2.08 +0.79

West Bromwich Albion produced 0.79 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Preston North End West Bromwich Albion

Shots: 19; 20
On target: 4; 5
Inside the box: 14; 14
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.11
Open play xG: 1.30; 2.11
Set-piece xG: 0.49; 0.08
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.16 for West Bromwich Albion.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

39 shots · 3.97 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Preston North End
West Bromwich Albion
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Preston North End

1.07 xG created 1.64 xGA

L 2.48 created, 1.44 conceded against Watford
L 0.58 created, 0.66 conceded against Lincoln City
D 1.50 created, 2.54 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
L 0.65 created, 1.09 conceded against Millwall
L 0.49 created, 2.24 conceded against Birmingham City
L 0.72 created, 1.86 conceded against Wrexham

West Bromwich Albion

1.26 xG created 1.27 xGA

W 0.38 created, 1.27 conceded against Derby County
D 1.22 created, 0.62 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
L 0.29 created, 1.95 conceded against Wolverhampton
L 1.05 created, 2.55 conceded against Birmingham City
W 0.94 created, 0.38 conceded against Wrexham
W 3.68 created, 0.82 conceded against Blackburn Rovers

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Preston North End: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 qualified edges flagged4 won3 lost

Lost
Won
Won
Lost
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Preston North End against West Bromwich Albion before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Preston North End to win	3.80	+24.4%	Lost
Draw	3.60	+13.5%	Won
West Bromwich Albion at most 1 goal	1.80	+11.9%	Won
West Bromwich Albion not to score	4.33	+7.3%	Lost
Preston North End 2+ goals	3.00	+6.5%	Lost
Preston North End to score	1.40	+3.2%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	1.91	+0.6%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Preston North End	32.7%	24.7%	+8.1 pp	3.06
Draw	31.5%	26.0%	+5.5 pp	3.17
West Bromwich Albion	35.7%	49.3%	−13.6 pp	2.80

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Preston North End to score	73.7%	66.3%	+7.5 pp	1.36
Preston North End not to score	26.3%	33.7%	−7.5 pp	3.81
West Bromwich Albion to score	75.2%	78.3%	−3.1 pp	1.33
West Bromwich Albion not to score	24.8%	21.7%	+3.1 pp	4.04
Both teams to score	57.3%	53.7%	+3.7 pp	1.74
Both teams not to score	42.7%	46.3%	−3.7 pp	2.34
Preston North End 2+ goals	35.5%	31.3%	+4.3 pp	2.82
Preston North End at most 1 goal	64.5%	68.7%	−4.3 pp	1.55
West Bromwich Albion 2+ goals	37.8%	48.5%	−10.7 pp	2.64
West Bromwich Albion at most 1 goal	62.2%	51.5%	+10.7 pp	1.61
Over 1.5 goals	76.1%	74.5%	+1.6 pp	1.31
Under 1.5 goals	23.9%	25.5%	−1.6 pp	4.18
Over 2.5 goals	47.3%	50.0%	−2.7 pp	2.11
Under 2.5 goals	52.7%	50.0%	+2.7 pp	1.90

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Preston North End sample: 20 matches
West Bromwich Albion sample: 20 matches
Computed: 29 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.