Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 16:00
Full timeQueens Park Rangers 5:0 Swansea City
Queens Park Rangers were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. They won 5–0. The biggest difference was Queens Park Rangers's attack: 3.22 xG against 1.29 projected (+1.93). Swansea City produced 0.20 xG against 1.06 projected (−0.86).
Goals
- 2' Richard Kone Queens Park Rangers · 0.75 xG chance 1–0
- 10' Richard Kone Queens Park Rangers · 0.20 xG chance 2–0
- 15' Richard Kone (pen.) Queens Park Rangers · 0.82 xG chance 3–0
- 45' Jimmy Dunne Queens Park Rangers · 0.20 xG chance 4–0
- 86' Jimmy Dunne Queens Park Rangers · 0.38 xG chance 5–0
The model against the result
- Queens Park Rangers
- 40% What happened
- Draw
- 32%
- Swansea City
- 28%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Queens Park Rangers produced 1.93 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 12
- 8
- On target
- 5
- 3
- Inside the box
- 9
- 4
- xG per shot
- 0.27
- 0.03
- Open play xG
- 1.77
- 0.15
- Set-piece xG
- 0.65
- 0.06
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.44 for Queens Park Rangers and 0.21 for Swansea City.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
20 shots · 3.45 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Queens Park Rangers
- Swansea City
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.37 xG created 1.13 xGA
- D 1.10 created, 0.48 conceded against Charlton Athletic
- D 0.62 created, 1.22 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
- D 2.54 created, 1.50 conceded against Preston North End
- D 1.27 created, 1.44 conceded against West Ham United
- W 1.52 created, 0.85 conceded against Derby County
- L 1.15 created, 1.30 conceded against Birmingham City
1.67 xG created 1.37 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 qualified edges flagged2 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.91 | +10.0% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.30 | +7.2% | Lost |
| Swansea City at most 1 goal | 1.50 | +7.0% | Won |
| Swansea City not to score | 3.25 | +3.2% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Queens Park Rangers | 39.7% | 38.7% | +1.0 pp | 2.52 |
| Draw | 32.5% | 28.1% | +4.4 pp | 3.08 |
| Swansea City | 27.8% | 33.2% | −5.4 pp | 3.60 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Queens Park Rangers to score | 75.1% | 73.1% | +2.0 pp | 1.33 |
| Queens Park Rangers not to score | 24.9% | 26.9% | −2.0 pp | 4.02 |
| Swansea City to score | 68.2% | 70.9% | −2.7 pp | 1.47 |
| Swansea City not to score | 31.8% | 29.1% | +2.7 pp | 3.15 |
| Both teams to score | 53.2% | 53.7% | −0.5 pp | 1.88 |
| Both teams not to score | 46.8% | 46.3% | +0.5 pp | 2.14 |
| Queens Park Rangers 2+ goals | 37.7% | 41.1% | −3.4 pp | 2.65 |
| Queens Park Rangers at most 1 goal | 62.3% | 58.9% | +3.4 pp | 1.61 |
| Swansea City 2+ goals | 28.7% | 37.5% | −8.8 pp | 3.49 |
| Swansea City at most 1 goal | 71.3% | 62.5% | +8.8 pp | 1.40 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.3% | 72.9% | −0.6 pp | 1.38 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 27.7% | 27.1% | +0.6 pp | 3.61 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.4% | 50.0% | −7.6 pp | 2.36 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57.6% | 50.0% | +7.6 pp | 1.74 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Queens Park Rangers sample
- 20 matches
- Swansea City sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 29 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 3 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.