Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 16:00
Full timeStoke City 0:0 Bristol City
Bristol City were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was Bristol City's attack: 0.78 xG against 1.23 projected (−0.45). Stoke City produced 0.67 xG against 1.10 projected (−0.43).
The model against the result
- Stoke City
- 30%
- Draw
- 33% What happened
- Bristol City
- 37%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Bristol City produced 0.45 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 11
- 8
- On target
- 1
- 0
- Inside the box
- 7
- 4
- xG per shot
- 0.06
- 0.10
- Open play xG
- 0.19
- 0.46
- Set-piece xG
- 0.47
- 0.33
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.67 for Stoke City and 0.78 for Bristol City.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
19 shots · 1.46 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Stoke City
- Bristol City
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
0.85 xG created 1.86 xGA
- D 1.11 created, 3.60 conceded against Cardiff City
- W 1.50 created, 0.39 conceded against Watford
- W 0.54 created, 0.48 conceded against Sheffield United
- W 0.74 created, 3.13 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
- L 0.65 created, 2.57 conceded against Middlesbrough
- W 0.56 created, 0.99 conceded against Derby County
1.52 xG created 0.99 xGA
- L 2.24 created, 1.71 conceded against Southampton
- L 1.53 created, 0.53 conceded against Lincoln City
- W 1.47 created, 0.57 conceded against Watford
- D 1.47 created, 1.78 conceded against Charlton Athletic
- L 1.89 created, 0.15 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
- L 0.50 created, 1.18 conceded against Sheffield United
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 qualified edges flagged4 won2 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City to win | 3.00 | +10.7% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.30 | +8.8% | Won |
| Stoke City at most 1 goal | 1.53 | +6.9% | Won |
| Stoke City not to score | 3.50 | +6.1% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.73 | +0.6% | Won |
| Bristol City to score | 1.36 | +0.4% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke City | 30.1% | 40.1% | −9.9 pp | 3.32 |
| Draw | 33.0% | 28.5% | +4.4 pp | 3.03 |
| Bristol City | 36.9% | 31.4% | +5.5 pp | 2.71 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke City to score | 69.7% | 73.1% | −3.4 pp | 1.43 |
| Stoke City not to score | 30.3% | 26.9% | +3.4 pp | 3.30 |
| Bristol City to score | 73.6% | 68.7% | +4.9 pp | 1.36 |
| Bristol City not to score | 26.4% | 31.3% | −4.9 pp | 3.79 |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% | 51.5% | +1.8 pp | 1.88 |
| Both teams not to score | 46.7% | 48.5% | −1.8 pp | 2.14 |
| Stoke City 2+ goals | 30.3% | 39.2% | −9.0 pp | 3.31 |
| Stoke City at most 1 goal | 69.7% | 60.8% | +9.0 pp | 1.43 |
| Bristol City 2+ goals | 35.3% | 33.7% | +1.6 pp | 2.83 |
| Bristol City at most 1 goal | 64.7% | 66.3% | −1.6 pp | 1.55 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.0% | 71.8% | +0.1 pp | 1.39 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28.0% | 28.2% | −0.1 pp | 3.57 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.7% | 45.1% | −3.4 pp | 2.40 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58.3% | 54.9% | +3.4 pp | 1.72 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Stoke City sample
- 20 matches
- Bristol City sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 29 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 3 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.