West Ham United 2:3 Southampton: xG & match report · Championship

Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Championship

West Ham United Home 1.52 xG · 28 shots

Southampton Away 1.55 xG · 15 shots

23 The chances were evenly matched

West Ham United were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 50%. Southampton won 3–2. The biggest difference was Southampton's attack: 1.55 xG against 1.21 projected (+0.34). West Ham United produced 1.52 xG against 1.78 projected (−0.26).

Goals

2' Kuryu Matsuki Southampton · 0.16 xG chance 0–1
11' James Bree Southampton · 0.04 xG chance 0–2
24' Kyle Walker-Peters West Ham United · 0.07 xG chance 1–2
34' Lewis Dobbin Southampton · 0.83 xG chance 1–3
90' Tomáš Souček West Ham United · 0.07 xG chance 2–3

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

West Ham United: 50%
Draw: 27%
Southampton: 23% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

West Ham United 1.78 1.52 -0.26

Southampton 1.21 1.55 +0.34

Southampton produced 0.34 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

West Ham United Southampton

Shots: 28; 15
On target: 10; 7
Inside the box: 15; 11
xG per shot: 0.05; 0.11
Open play xG: 0.98; 1.66
Set-piece xG: 0.53; 0.01
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.63 for Southampton.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

43 shots · 3.18 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

West Ham United
Southampton
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

West Ham United

2.15 xG created 1.22 xGA

W 2.22 created, 1.56 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
W 2.96 created, 0.44 conceded against Wrexham
D 1.87 created, 2.68 conceded against Millwall
D 1.44 created, 1.27 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
W 3.20 created, 0.35 conceded against Lincoln City
W 1.19 created, 1.04 conceded against Swansea City

Southampton

1.79 xG created 1.25 xGA

W 1.44 created, 1.22 conceded against Swansea City
W 1.71 created, 2.24 conceded against Bristol City
L 2.08 created, 0.54 conceded against Wrexham
W 1.28 created, 1.18 conceded against Portsmouth
W 2.34 created, 1.07 conceded against Norwich City
D 1.87 created, 1.22 conceded against Bolton Wanderers

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

5 qualified edges flagged1 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on West Ham United against Southampton before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
West Ham United not to score	8.00	+16.2%	Lost
West Ham United at most 1 goal	2.50	+12.3%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.75	+11.7%	Lost
Draw	4.10	+11.5%	Lost
Southampton to win	4.50	+4.6%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
West Ham United	49.6%	56.3%	−6.7 pp	2.02
Draw	27.2%	22.9%	+4.3 pp	3.68
Southampton	23.2%	20.8%	+2.4 pp	4.30

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
West Ham United to score	85.5%	88.1%	−2.6 pp	1.17
West Ham United not to score	14.5%	11.9%	+2.6 pp	6.88
Southampton to score	73.2%	68.7%	+4.4 pp	1.37
Southampton not to score	26.8%	31.3%	−4.4 pp	3.73
Both teams to score	64.1%	62.5%	+1.6 pp	1.56
Both teams not to score	35.9%	37.5%	−1.6 pp	2.78
West Ham United 2+ goals	55.1%	62.5%	−7.4 pp	1.82
West Ham United at most 1 goal	44.9%	37.5%	+7.4 pp	2.23
Southampton 2+ goals	34.8%	35.5%	−0.7 pp	2.87
Southampton at most 1 goal	65.2%	64.5%	+0.7 pp	1.53
Over 1.5 goals	83.9%	82.8%	+1.1 pp	1.19
Under 1.5 goals	16.1%	17.2%	−1.1 pp	6.21
Over 2.5 goals	59.4%	65.6%	−6.2 pp	1.68
Under 2.5 goals	40.6%	34.4%	+6.2 pp	2.46

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
West Ham United sample: 11 matches
Southampton sample: 20 matches
Computed: 29 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.