Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 16:00
Full timeWolverhampton 1:0 Watford
Wolverhampton were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 61%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Watford's attack: 0.13 xG against 0.87 projected (−0.74).
Goals
- 35' Adam Armstrong Wolverhampton · 0.05 xG chance 1–0
The model against the result
- Wolverhampton
- 61% What happened
- Draw
- 25%
- Watford
- 14%
Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Projected vs produced
Watford produced 0.74 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 24
- 4
- On target
- 3
- 0
- Inside the box
- 16
- 2
- xG per shot
- 0.08
- 0.03
- Open play xG
- 1.56
- 0.10
- Set-piece xG
- 0.27
- 0.03
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.85 for Wolverhampton and 0.13 for Watford.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
28 shots · 1.97 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Wolverhampton
- Watford
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.54 xG created 0.85 xGA
- W 1.57 created, 0.63 conceded against Sheffield United
- W 1.95 created, 0.29 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
- L 0.68 created, 0.90 conceded against Middlesbrough
- L 2.23 created, 1.62 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
- W 1.82 created, 1.00 conceded against Burnley
- D 1.01 created, 0.65 conceded against Portsmouth
1.21 xG created 2.05 xGA
- W 1.44 created, 2.48 conceded against Preston North End
- L 0.39 created, 1.50 conceded against Stoke City
- L 0.57 created, 1.47 conceded against Bristol City
- L 0.64 created, 1.94 conceded against Burnley
- L 1.46 created, 3.67 conceded against Cardiff City
- W 2.78 created, 1.25 conceded against Charlton Athletic
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
6 qualified edges flagged2 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 4.75 | +18.9% | Lost |
| Watford to win | 8.00 | +10.1% | Lost |
| Wolverhampton at most 1 goal | 2.63 | +9.0% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.30 | +6.7% | Won |
| Wolverhampton not to score | 8.00 | +3.2% | Lost |
| Watford to score | 1.67 | +1.4% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolverhampton | 61.2% | 68.6% | −7.4 pp | 1.63 |
| Draw | 25.0% | 19.7% | +5.3 pp | 4.00 |
| Watford | 13.8% | 11.7% | +2.1 pp | 7.26 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolverhampton to score | 87.1% | 88.1% | −1.0 pp | 1.15 |
| Wolverhampton not to score | 12.9% | 11.9% | +1.0 pp | 7.75 |
| Watford to score | 60.8% | 55.7% | +5.1 pp | 1.64 |
| Watford not to score | 39.2% | 44.3% | −5.1 pp | 2.55 |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | 50.0% | +4.5 pp | 1.84 |
| Both teams not to score | 45.5% | 50.0% | −4.5 pp | 2.20 |
| Wolverhampton 2+ goals | 58.5% | 64.5% | −6.0 pp | 1.71 |
| Wolverhampton at most 1 goal | 41.5% | 35.5% | +6.0 pp | 2.41 |
| Watford 2+ goals | 21.1% | 20.8% | +0.3 pp | 4.74 |
| Watford at most 1 goal | 78.9% | 79.2% | −0.3 pp | 1.27 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.1% | 78.9% | +1.2 pp | 1.25 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19.9% | 21.1% | −1.2 pp | 5.02 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.6% | 58.7% | −5.1 pp | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.4% | 41.3% | +5.1 pp | 2.16 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Wolverhampton sample
- 11 matches
- Watford sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 29 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 3 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.