FK Teplice 2:0 FK Jablonec: xG & match report · Czech First League

Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 17:00

Full time

Match report · Czech First League

FK Teplice Home 0.79 xG · 15 shots

FK Jablonec Away 1.15 xG · 9 shots

20 The result went against the chances

FK Teplice were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was FK Teplice's attack: 0.79 xG against 1.42 projected (−0.63).

Goals

80' John Auta FK Teplice · 0.10 xG chance 1–0
88' Matej Radosta FK Teplice · 0.15 xG chance 2–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FK Teplice: 39% What happened
Draw: 31%
FK Jablonec: 30%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FK Teplice 1.42 0.79 -0.63

FK Jablonec 1.23 1.15 -0.08

FK Teplice produced 0.63 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FK Teplice FK Jablonec

Shots: 15; 9
On target: 5; 1
Inside the box: 8; 6
xG per shot: 0.05; 0.12
Open play xG: 0.66; 0.48
Set-piece xG: 0.14; 0.64
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.79 for FK Teplice and 1.15 for FK Jablonec.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

24 shots · 1.92 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

FK Teplice
FK Jablonec
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FK Teplice

1.45 xG created 1.69 xGA

W 2.26 created, 3.23 conceded against Mladá Boleslav
W 2.43 created, 0.73 conceded against Bohemians Praha 1905
W 0.90 created, 0.88 conceded against FC Slovan Liberec
D 1.47 created, 2.49 conceded against Viktoria Plzeň
L 0.82 created, 2.12 conceded against AC Sparta Praha
L 0.82 created, 0.69 conceded against FC Zbrojovka Brno

FK Jablonec

1.10 xG created 1.95 xGA

L 0.31 created, 3.68 conceded against SK Slavia Praha
L 0.47 created, 3.33 conceded against Viktoria Plzeň
W 3.52 created, 1.01 conceded against FC Slovan Liberec
W 1.34 created, 0.37 conceded against SK Sigma Olomouc
W 0.61 created, 2.75 conceded against FK Pardubice
W 0.36 created, 0.58 conceded against 1. FC Slovácko

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FK Teplice: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost

Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FK Teplice against FK Jablonec before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.75	+1.4%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.29	+0.9%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FK Teplice	39.4%	38.4%	+1.0 pp	2.54
Draw	30.6%	28.5%	+2.1 pp	3.27
FK Jablonec	30.0%	33.1%	−3.2 pp	3.33

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	59.7%	53.3%	+6.3 pp	1.68
Both teams not to score	40.3%	46.7%	−6.3 pp	2.48
Over 1.5 goals	78.5%	73.1%	+5.3 pp	1.27
Under 1.5 goals	21.5%	26.9%	−5.3 pp	4.64
Over 2.5 goals	50.6%	48.7%	+1.9 pp	1.98
Under 2.5 goals	49.4%	51.3%	−1.9 pp	2.02

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FK Teplice sample: 20 matches
FK Jablonec sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.