Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 13:00
Full timeMladá Boleslav 4:0 Baník Ostrava
Mladá Boleslav were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. They won 4–0. The biggest difference was Mladá Boleslav's attack: 3.10 xG against 1.37 projected (+1.73). Baník Ostrava produced 2.44 xG against 1.12 projected (+1.32).
Goals
- 10' Martin Šubert Mladá Boleslav · 0.34 xG chance 1–0
- 20' Martin Šubert Mladá Boleslav · 0.10 xG chance 2–0
- 52' Solomon John Mladá Boleslav · 0.13 xG chance 3–0
- 83' Josef Kolářík Mladá Boleslav · 0.38 xG chance 4–0
The model against the result
- Mladá Boleslav
- 41% What happened
- Draw
- 32%
- Baník Ostrava
- 28%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Mladá Boleslav produced 1.73 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 14
- 23
- On target
- 9
- 5
- Inside the box
- 12
- 14
- xG per shot
- 0.22
- 0.10
- Open play xG
- 3.01
- 2.06
- Set-piece xG
- 0.00
- 0.35
- Penalties
- —
- —
Mladá Boleslav's shots add up to 3.01 xG and Baník Ostrava's to 2.41; the published figures are 3.10 and 2.44.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
37 shots · 5.42 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Mladá Boleslav
- Baník Ostrava
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.66 xG created 1.77 xGA
- L 3.23 created, 2.26 conceded against FK Teplice
- W 2.17 created, 1.57 conceded against SK Líšeň
- D 1.17 created, 2.48 conceded against SK Sigma Olomouc
- W 1.49 created, 0.77 conceded against AC Sparta Praha
- D 0.75 created, 1.37 conceded against FK Pardubice
- W 1.16 created, 2.18 conceded against 1. FC Slovácko
1.19 xG created 1.32 xGA
- W 2.16 created, 0.99 conceded against Dukla Praha
- W 1.01 created, 0.81 conceded against FC Zlín
- L 0.70 created, 2.19 conceded against SK Slavia Praha
- L 0.80 created, 2.39 conceded against FC Hradec Králové
- W 2.23 created, 0.91 conceded against SK Líšeň
- W 0.24 created, 0.63 conceded against SK Sigma Olomouc
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | +12.4% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.40 | +7.1% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 4.33 | +6.0% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mladá Boleslav | 40.6% | 41.5% | −0.8 pp | 2.46 |
| Draw | 31.5% | 26.8% | +4.7 pp | 3.17 |
| Baník Ostrava | 27.9% | 31.7% | −3.9 pp | 3.59 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 56.4% | 57.7% | −1.2 pp | 1.77 |
| Both teams not to score | 43.6% | 42.3% | +1.2 pp | 2.30 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.5% | 78.3% | −2.8 pp | 1.32 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24.5% | 21.7% | +2.8 pp | 4.09 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.5% | 55.3% | −8.8 pp | 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.5% | 44.7% | +8.8 pp | 1.87 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Mladá Boleslav sample
- 20 matches
- Baník Ostrava sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 21 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 22 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.