Lech Poznań 2:1 Jagiellonia Białystok: xG & match report · Ekstraklasa

Thursday, 03/09/2026 at 20:30

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Match report · Ekstraklasa

Lech Poznań Home 1.78 xG · 16 shots

Jagiellonia Białystok Away 0.48 xG · 10 shots

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

Lech Poznań were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 59%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Jagiellonia Białystok's attack: 0.48 xG against 1.10 projected (−0.62). Lech Poznań produced 1.78 xG against 2.05 projected (−0.27).

Goals

43' Pablo Rodríguez Lech Poznań · 0.35 xG chance 1–0
45' Yuki Kobayashi Jagiellonia Białystok · 0.03 xG chance 1–1
87' Robert Gumny Lech Poznań · 0.24 xG chance 2–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Lech Poznań: 59% What happened
Draw: 24%
Jagiellonia Białystok: 17%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Lech Poznań 2.05 1.78 -0.27

Jagiellonia Białystok 1.10 0.48 -0.62

Jagiellonia Białystok produced 0.62 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Lech Poznań Jagiellonia Białystok

Shots: 16; 10
On target: 6; 2
Inside the box: 9; 3
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.05
Open play xG: 1.50; 0.52
Set-piece xG: 0.27; 0.00
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.76 for Lech Poznań and 0.50 for Jagiellonia Białystok.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

26 shots · 2.29 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Lech Poznań
Jagiellonia Białystok
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Lech Poznań

1.69 xG created 1.25 xGA

W 1.40 created, 0.50 conceded against Radomiak Radom
D 1.23 created, 3.24 conceded against Wisła Płock
D 0.79 created, 0.88 conceded against Cracovia
W 1.69 created, 0.99 conceded against Wieczysta Kraków
W 3.12 created, 1.06 conceded against Piast Gliwice
W 1.89 created, 0.80 conceded against Widzew Łódź

Jagiellonia Białystok

1.95 xG created 1.43 xGA

D 2.08 created, 1.07 conceded against GKS Katowice
W 2.05 created, 2.40 conceded against Zagłębie Lubin
W 1.16 created, 0.77 conceded against MKS Korona Kielce
W 0.89 created, 2.01 conceded against Motor Lublin
L 1.08 created, 1.10 conceded against Widzew Łódź
W 4.44 created, 1.24 conceded against Raków Częstochowa

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Lech Poznań: 0 won · 2 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost

Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Lech Poznań against Jagiellonia Białystok before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.88	+6.6%	Lost
Jagiellonia Białystok at most 1 goal	1.50	+4.6%	Won
Jagiellonia Białystok not to score	3.40	+3.0%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Lech Poznań	58.9%	56.1%	+2.8 pp	1.70
Draw	24.2%	22.6%	+1.6 pp	4.13
Jagiellonia Białystok	16.9%	21.4%	−4.5 pp	5.93

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Lech Poznań to score	89.1%	88.1%	+1.0 pp	1.12
Lech Poznań not to score	10.9%	11.9%	−1.0 pp	9.19
Jagiellonia Białystok to score	69.7%	72.3%	−2.6 pp	1.43
Jagiellonia Białystok not to score	30.3%	27.7%	+2.6 pp	3.30
Both teams to score	63.4%	60.8%	+2.7 pp	1.58
Both teams not to score	36.6%	39.2%	−2.7 pp	2.74
Lech Poznań 2+ goals	63.0%	64.5%	−1.6 pp	1.59
Lech Poznań at most 1 goal	37.0%	35.5%	+1.6 pp	2.70
Jagiellonia Białystok 2+ goals	30.2%	37.5%	−7.3 pp	3.31
Jagiellonia Białystok at most 1 goal	69.8%	62.5%	+7.3 pp	1.43
Over 1.5 goals	85.8%	85.4%	+0.4 pp	1.17
Under 1.5 goals	14.2%	14.6%	−0.4 pp	7.05
Over 2.5 goals	62.9%	67.3%	−4.3 pp	1.59
Under 2.5 goals	37.1%	32.7%	+4.3 pp	2.70

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Lech Poznań sample: 20 matches
Jagiellonia Białystok sample: 20 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.