Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 14:45
Full timeMKS Korona Kielce 1:1 Motor Lublin
MKS Korona Kielce were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was MKS Korona Kielce's attack: 0.88 xG against 1.74 projected (−0.86). Motor Lublin produced 0.68 xG against 1.23 projected (−0.55).
Goals
- 19' Mariusz Stępiński MKS Korona Kielce · 0.09 xG chance 1–0
- 30' Karol Czubak Motor Lublin · 0.07 xG chance 1–1
The model against the result
- MKS Korona Kielce
- 48%
- Draw
- 28% What happened
- Motor Lublin
- 24%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
MKS Korona Kielce produced 0.86 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 16
- 11
- On target
- 3
- 2
- Inside the box
- 9
- 5
- xG per shot
- 0.06
- 0.06
- Open play xG
- 0.46
- 0.36
- Set-piece xG
- 0.42
- 0.31
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.68 for Motor Lublin.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
27 shots · 1.55 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- MKS Korona Kielce
- Motor Lublin
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.01 xG created 1.17 xGA
- L 1.43 created, 0.91 conceded against Raków Częstochowa
- W 0.81 created, 0.56 conceded against Widzew Łódź
- D 0.25 created, 1.41 conceded against Cracovia
- L 0.77 created, 1.16 conceded against Jagiellonia Białystok
- D 0.73 created, 0.69 conceded against Legia Warszawa
- W 2.09 created, 2.31 conceded against Widzew Łódź
1.53 xG created 1.77 xGA
- D 1.64 created, 1.46 conceded against Cracovia
- L 0.54 created, 2.33 conceded against Legia Warszawa
- D 1.15 created, 2.49 conceded against Widzew Łódź
- L 2.01 created, 0.89 conceded against Jagiellonia Białystok
- L 0.92 created, 2.35 conceded against Pogoń Szczecin
- W 2.92 created, 1.10 conceded against GKS Katowice
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged4 won1 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | +6.5% | Won |
| Motor Lublin to score | 1.40 | +3.1% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | +2.0% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | +1.3% | Lost |
| MKS Korona Kielce to score | 1.18 | +0.1% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MKS Korona Kielce | 48.0% | 47.9% | +0.1 pp | 2.08 |
| Draw | 27.6% | 26.8% | +0.8 pp | 3.62 |
| Motor Lublin | 24.4% | 25.3% | −0.9 pp | 4.10 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MKS Korona Kielce to score | 84.7% | 79.2% | +5.5 pp | 1.18 |
| MKS Korona Kielce not to score | 15.3% | 20.8% | −5.5 pp | 6.52 |
| Motor Lublin to score | 73.6% | 66.3% | +7.4 pp | 1.36 |
| Motor Lublin not to score | 26.4% | 33.7% | −7.4 pp | 3.79 |
| Both teams to score | 63.9% | 55.7% | +8.2 pp | 1.57 |
| Both teams not to score | 36.1% | 44.3% | −8.2 pp | 2.77 |
| MKS Korona Kielce 2+ goals | 53.5% | 50.0% | +3.5 pp | 1.87 |
| MKS Korona Kielce at most 1 goal | 46.5% | 50.0% | −3.5 pp | 2.15 |
| Motor Lublin 2+ goals | 35.4% | 33.7% | +1.7 pp | 2.83 |
| Motor Lublin at most 1 goal | 64.6% | 66.3% | −1.7 pp | 1.55 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.4% | 76.6% | +6.8 pp | 1.20 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16.6% | 23.4% | −6.8 pp | 6.04 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.6% | 54.6% | +4.1 pp | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.4% | 45.4% | −4.1 pp | 2.42 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- MKS Korona Kielce sample
- 20 matches
- Motor Lublin sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 5 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.