Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 20:15
Full timeŚląsk Wrocław 3:3 Widzew Łódź
Śląsk Wrocław were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. It finished 3–3. The biggest difference was Śląsk Wrocław's attack: 1.83 xG against 1.27 projected (+0.56).
Goals
- 15' Mario Garcia Widzew Łódź · 0.33 xG chance 0–1
- 36' Fran Álvarez Widzew Łódź · 0.25 xG chance 0–2
- 47' Steve Kapuadi (o.g.) Śląsk Wrocław · 0.28 xG chance 1–2
- 63' Ángel Baena Widzew Łódź · 0.23 xG chance 1–3
- 78' Przemysław Banaszak Śląsk Wrocław · 0.08 xG chance 2–3
- 89' Eniss Shabani Śląsk Wrocław · 0.13 xG chance 3–3
The model against the result
- Śląsk Wrocław
- 36%
- Draw
- 32% What happened
- Widzew Łódź
- 32%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Śląsk Wrocław produced 0.56 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 18
- 13
- On target
- 7
- 7
- Inside the box
- 12
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.11
- Open play xG
- 1.22
- 1.24
- Set-piece xG
- 0.91
- 0.16
- Penalties
- —
- —
Śląsk Wrocław's shots add up to 2.13 xG and Widzew Łódź's to 1.40; the published figures are 1.83 and 1.29.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
31 shots · 3.53 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Śląsk Wrocław
- Widzew Łódź
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.27 xG created 1.52 xGA
1.49 xG created 1.19 xGA
- L 0.56 created, 0.81 conceded against MKS Korona Kielce
- W 0.67 created, 0.47 conceded against Piast Gliwice
- D 2.49 created, 1.15 conceded against Motor Lublin
- D 1.79 created, 1.54 conceded against Wisła Płock
- W 1.10 created, 1.08 conceded against Jagiellonia Białystok
- L 2.31 created, 2.09 conceded against MKS Korona Kielce
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | +7.8% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.30 | +5.3% | Won |
| Śląsk Wrocław to win | 2.80 | +0.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Śląsk Wrocław | 35.8% | 32.6% | +3.2 pp | 2.79 |
| Draw | 31.9% | 27.7% | +4.2 pp | 3.13 |
| Widzew Łódź | 32.3% | 39.7% | −7.4 pp | 3.10 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 56.6% | 57.7% | −1.1 pp | 1.77 |
| Both teams not to score | 43.4% | 42.3% | +1.1 pp | 2.30 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.3% | 75.0% | +0.3 pp | 1.33 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24.7% | 25.0% | −0.3 pp | 4.04 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.1% | 52.6% | −6.5 pp | 2.17 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.9% | 47.4% | +6.5 pp | 1.86 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Śląsk Wrocław sample
- 4 matches
- Widzew Łódź sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 11 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Warnings
- Śląsk Wrocław has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.