Bodø/Glimt 4:2 Rosenborg BK: xG & match report · Eliteserien

Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 14:30

Full time

Match report · Eliteserien

Bodø/Glimt Home 2.93 xG · 24 shots

Rosenborg BK Away 1.04 xG · 11 shots

42 The scoreline reflected the chances

Bodø/Glimt were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 57%. They won 4–2. The biggest difference was Bodø/Glimt's attack: 2.93 xG against 1.68 projected (+1.25).

Goals

36' Simen Nordli Rosenborg BK · 0.37 xG chance 0–1
40' Fredrik André Bjørkan Bodø/Glimt · 0.08 xG chance 1–1
58' Fredrik André Bjørkan Bodø/Glimt · 0.19 xG chance 2–1
61' Andreas Helmersen Bodø/Glimt · 0.13 xG chance 3–1
77' Andreas Helmersen Bodø/Glimt · 0.26 xG chance 4–1
88' Emil Konradsen Ceide Rosenborg BK · 0.15 xG chance 4–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Bodø/Glimt: 57% What happened
Draw: 28%
Rosenborg BK: 16%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Bodø/Glimt 1.68 2.93 +1.25

Rosenborg BK 0.84 1.04 +0.20

Bodø/Glimt produced 1.25 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Bodø/Glimt Rosenborg BK

Shots: 24; 11
On target: 7; 3
Inside the box: 19; 8
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.10
Open play xG: 1.84; 0.91
Set-piece xG: 0.83; 0.14
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.66 for Bodø/Glimt and 1.04 for Rosenborg BK.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

35 shots · 3.72 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Bodø/Glimt
Rosenborg BK
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Bodø/Glimt

2.12 xG created 0.62 xGA

W 1.76 created, 1.02 conceded against KFUM Oslo
W 2.24 created, 0.12 conceded against Fredrikstad FK
W 2.50 created, 0.19 conceded against HamKam
W 2.18 created, 0.69 conceded against Sandefjord Fotball
W 2.15 created, 0.38 conceded against Lillestrøm SK
W 1.89 created, 1.30 conceded against Vålerenga IF

Rosenborg BK

2.02 xG created 1.15 xGA

W 2.27 created, 0.63 conceded against Kristiansund BK
W 1.57 created, 0.67 conceded against IK Start
W 2.54 created, 0.54 conceded against Fredrikstad FK
L 1.93 created, 0.78 conceded against SK Brann
W 2.45 created, 2.39 conceded against Lillestrøm SK
W 1.37 created, 1.86 conceded against Viking FK

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Bodø/Glimt: 1 won · 2 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

9 opportunities flagged0 won9 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Bodø/Glimt against Rosenborg BK before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	3.50	+79.8%	Lost
Bodø/Glimt not to score	13.00	+78.6%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	8.00	+69.9%	Lost
Bodø/Glimt at most 1 goal	3.50	+69.2%	Lost
Draw	5.75	+52.7%	Lost
Both teams not to score	2.38	+8.9%	Lost
Rosenborg BK at most 1 goal	1.33	+6.5%	Lost
Rosenborg BK not to score	2.63	+6.0%	Lost
Rosenborg BK to win	7.00	+2.1%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Bodø/Glimt	56.5%	70.3%	−13.8 pp	1.77
Draw	27.8%	16.3%	+11.5 pp	3.60
Rosenborg BK	15.7%	13.4%	+2.3 pp	6.37

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Bodø/Glimt to score	83.8%	92.6%	−8.8 pp	1.19
Bodø/Glimt not to score	16.2%	7.4%	+8.8 pp	6.16
Rosenborg BK to score	59.6%	64.5%	−4.9 pp	1.68
Rosenborg BK not to score	40.4%	35.5%	+4.9 pp	2.48
Both teams to score	51.6%	60.8%	−9.2 pp	1.94
Both teams not to score	48.4%	39.2%	+9.2 pp	2.07
Bodø/Glimt 2+ goals	51.7%	73.1%	−21.5 pp	1.94
Bodø/Glimt at most 1 goal	48.3%	26.9%	+21.5 pp	2.07
Rosenborg BK 2+ goals	20.1%	29.1%	−9.0 pp	4.98
Rosenborg BK at most 1 goal	79.9%	70.9%	+9.0 pp	1.25
Over 1.5 goals	75.7%	88.1%	−12.4 pp	1.32
Under 1.5 goals	24.3%	11.9%	+12.4 pp	4.12
Over 2.5 goals	47.1%	72.9%	−25.8 pp	2.12
Under 2.5 goals	52.9%	27.1%	+25.8 pp	1.89

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Bodø/Glimt sample: 20 matches
Rosenborg BK sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 4 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.