Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 17:00
Full timeHamKam 2:2 Kristiansund BK
HamKam were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was HamKam's attack: 0.71 xG against 1.17 projected (−0.46).
Goals
- 49' Sander Svendsen Kristiansund BK · 0.11 xG chance 0–1
- 51' Blerton Isufi HamKam · 0.04 xG chance 1–1
- 62' Leander Alvheim Kristiansund BK · 0.18 xG chance 1–2
- 73' Danilo Al-Saed HamKam · 0.10 xG chance 2–2
The model against the result
- HamKam
- 35%
- Draw
- 33% What happened
- Kristiansund BK
- 31%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
HamKam produced 0.46 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 12
- 19
- On target
- 5
- 5
- Inside the box
- 7
- 13
- xG per shot
- 0.06
- 0.06
- Open play xG
- 0.44
- 0.88
- Set-piece xG
- 0.28
- 0.27
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.71 for HamKam and 1.13 for Kristiansund BK.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
31 shots · 1.87 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- HamKam
- Kristiansund BK
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
0.88 xG created 1.63 xGA
0.84 xG created 1.72 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged1 won7 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| HamKam not to score | 5.50 | +68.7% | Lost |
| HamKam at most 1 goal | 2.10 | +40.3% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.25 | +34.5% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.90 | +33.7% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 4.50 | +32.0% | Lost |
| Kristiansund BK to win | 3.50 | +22.4% | Lost |
| Both teams not to score | 2.25 | +13.8% | Lost |
| Kristiansund BK at most 1 goal | 1.44 | +0.7% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HamKam | 35.2% | 49.1% | −13.9 pp | 2.84 |
| Draw | 33.4% | 24.1% | +9.4 pp | 2.99 |
| Kristiansund BK | 31.4% | 26.8% | +4.6 pp | 3.19 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HamKam to score | 71.9% | 82.8% | −10.9 pp | 1.39 |
| HamKam not to score | 28.1% | 17.2% | +10.9 pp | 3.56 |
| Kristiansund BK to score | 69.7% | 68.7% | +1.0 pp | 1.43 |
| Kristiansund BK not to score | 30.3% | 31.3% | −1.0 pp | 3.30 |
| Both teams to score | 52.1% | 58.9% | −6.8 pp | 1.92 |
| Both teams not to score | 47.9% | 41.1% | +6.8 pp | 2.09 |
| HamKam 2+ goals | 33.2% | 55.7% | −22.5 pp | 3.01 |
| HamKam at most 1 goal | 66.8% | 44.3% | +22.5 pp | 1.50 |
| Kristiansund BK 2+ goals | 30.3% | 35.5% | −5.2 pp | 3.30 |
| Kristiansund BK at most 1 goal | 69.7% | 64.5% | +5.2 pp | 1.43 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.7% | 79.2% | −8.5 pp | 1.41 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 29.3% | 20.8% | +8.5 pp | 3.41 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.2% | 58.2% | −18.0 pp | 2.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 59.8% | 41.8% | +18.0 pp | 1.67 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- HamKam sample
- 20 matches
- Kristiansund BK sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 7 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.