IK Start 2:0 SK Brann: xG & match report · Eliteserien

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · Eliteserien

IK Start Home 2.22 xG · 22 shots

SK Brann Away 1.15 xG · 13 shots

20 The scoreline reflected the chances

IK Start were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was IK Start's attack: 2.22 xG against 1.46 projected (+0.76).

Goals

44' Ousmane Diallo Toure IK Start · 0.21 xG chance 1–0
90' Jesper Cornelius IK Start · 0.08 xG chance 2–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

IK Start: 41% What happened
Draw: 30%
SK Brann: 29%

Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

IK Start 1.46 2.22 +0.76

SK Brann 1.22 1.15 -0.07

IK Start produced 0.76 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

IK Start SK Brann

Shots: 22; 13
On target: 6; 4
Inside the box: 19; 8
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.09
Open play xG: 2.09; 1.04
Set-piece xG: 0.20; 0.08
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.24 for IK Start and 1.11 for SK Brann.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

35 shots · 3.41 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

IK Start
SK Brann
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

IK Start

1.92 xG created 1.55 xGA

L 0.67 created, 1.57 conceded against Rosenborg BK
W 1.47 created, 0.54 conceded against Kristiansund BK
L 2.48 created, 1.57 conceded against Viking FK
L 1.77 created, 1.53 conceded against Fredrikstad FK
W 3.43 created, 1.65 conceded against KFUM Oslo
L 1.67 created, 2.42 conceded against Aalesunds FK

SK Brann

1.49 xG created 1.36 xGA

W 0.71 created, 1.36 conceded against Molde FK
L 2.37 created, 2.34 conceded against Vålerenga IF
W 0.78 created, 1.93 conceded against Rosenborg BK
W 2.38 created, 0.24 conceded against HamKam
D 0.74 created, 0.97 conceded against Sandefjord Fotball
L 1.97 created, 1.33 conceded against Lillestrøm SK

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

IK Start: 0 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

SK Brann 2:1 IK Start 12/07/2026 xG 1.83 – 1.29

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged6 won2 lost

Won
Won
Won
Won
Lost
Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on IK Start against SK Brann before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
SK Brann not to score	5.50	+47.0%	Won
IK Start to win	3.40	+39.0%	Won
SK Brann at most 1 goal	2.10	+36.6%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	2.35	+14.2%	Won
Draw	3.75	+13.3%	Lost
IK Start 2+ goals	2.50	+10.3%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	5.00	+5.4%	Lost
IK Start to score	1.30	+3.2%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
IK Start	40.9%	27.7%	+13.1 pp	2.45
Draw	30.2%	25.1%	+5.1 pp	3.31
SK Brann	28.9%	47.1%	−18.2 pp	3.46

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
IK Start to score	79.4%	72.3%	+7.0 pp	1.26
IK Start not to score	20.6%	27.7%	−7.0 pp	4.85
SK Brann to score	73.3%	82.8%	−9.5 pp	1.36
SK Brann not to score	26.7%	17.2%	+9.5 pp	3.74
Both teams to score	59.9%	60.8%	−0.8 pp	1.67
Both teams not to score	40.1%	39.2%	+0.8 pp	2.50
IK Start 2+ goals	44.1%	37.5%	+6.6 pp	2.27
IK Start at most 1 goal	55.9%	62.5%	−6.6 pp	1.79
SK Brann 2+ goals	34.9%	55.7%	−20.8 pp	2.86
SK Brann at most 1 goal	65.1%	44.3%	+20.8 pp	1.54
Over 1.5 goals	78.9%	81.1%	−2.2 pp	1.27
Under 1.5 goals	21.1%	18.9%	+2.2 pp	4.74
Over 2.5 goals	51.4%	59.9%	−8.5 pp	1.94
Under 2.5 goals	48.6%	40.1%	+8.5 pp	2.06

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
IK Start sample: 19 matches
SK Brann sample: 20 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.