Fantasy Premier League
Who to captain
The captain's armband doubles whatever happens, so an average is the wrong number to pick on. Every candidate here carries the shape of his week as well as its middle — how bad it reasonably gets, how good it reasonably gets, and how often it is a haul.
Erling Haaland
FWD · LIV (A) · 15.6m · owned by 74%
4.6
Projected
Doubled by the captain's armband that is 4.6 points, from a floor of 4.
Gameweek 6 · 5-round window · feed of 01/10 11:39
Erling Haaland is the model's captain for gameweek 6, at 4.56 projected points. That is 0.56 clear of Thierno Barry.
His modelled week runs from 2 to 6 points before the captain's armband doubles it, and reaches 10 or more 8% of the time.
His margin
0.6
No one else in the game is within 0.56 points of him — the next is Thierno Barry.
His ceiling
6.0
His is the highest ceiling on the board at 6.0 points, and he hauls 8% of the time.
His start
92%
He is 92% to start, which is about as close to nailed on as this model ever says.
His ownership
74%
He is owned by 74% of the game, so captaining him protects a rank rather than chasing one.
Thierno Barry is the best differential on the board: owned by 8.3%, projected at 4.00.
See the differentials board →The top five on this board
The board as your controls leave it — the same five that open the table below.
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Ranked 1 Erling HaalandFWD vs4.6 Ptsfloor 2 ceiling 6
- Haul
- 7.8%
- Start
- 92%
- Own
- 74%
LIV (A)
-
Ranked 2 Thierno BarryFWD vs4.0 Ptsfloor 2 ceiling 6
- Haul
- 7.3%
- Start
- 92%
- Own
- 8.3%
HUL (A)
-
Ranked 3 Igor ThiagoFWD vs3.9 Ptsfloor 2 ceiling 6
- Haul
- 8.3%
- Start
- 92%
- Own
- 9.1%
AVL (A)
-
Ranked 4 Gonzalo GarcíaFWD vs3.9 Ptsfloor 2 ceiling 6
- Haul
- 6.8%
- Start
- 92%
- Own
- 4.0%
IPS (A)
-
Ranked 5 Yoane WissaFWD vs3.7 Ptsfloor 2 ceiling 6
- Haul
- 6.2%
- Start
- 92%
- Own
- 19%
COV (A)
What a floor and a ceiling are here
The floor is the 10th percentile of a modelled week and the ceiling is the 90th — the range a footballer's week usually falls in, not the worst and best he has ever had. The haul column is how often that week reaches 10 points.
Bonus points are projected nowhere on this site, so the ceiling is a ceiling on modelled scoring rather than on Fantasy points. Every other figure here excludes them too.
The spread is composed from the same parts the projection beside it is: its average is that projection, so the two cannot tell a reader different things about the same footballer.
The setting reweights the ranking by ownership and changes no arithmetic of its own. The model's own pick stays on the page at every setting, and the verdict at the top is always his.
Every figure here is what he scores, not what the captain's armband makes of it. Captaining him doubles all of it — the floor as well as the ceiling.
The board is every player the game would let you field, the flagged included — whether a doubtful player is worth picking is a judgement the projection makes with his published chance of playing, not one made by hiding him.
What is measured here, and what is not
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Measured The projected points
Replayed against gameweek 2 after it was played: an average miss of 1.617 points a player, against 1.842 for “predict what he has averaged so far”, over 456 players. Recorded Sunday, 6 September 2026 and refreshed by hand, so the date is part of the claim.
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Not measured The floor, the ceiling and the chance of a haul
Percentiles of a week composed from the same rates the projection uses. They reconcile with it by construction, which is not the same as having been checked against a round anybody played — nothing on this site has scored a floor or a ceiling.