Fantasy Premier League

Who to captain

The captain's armband doubles whatever happens, so an average is the wrong number to pick on. Every candidate here carries the shape of his week as well as its middle — how bad it reasonably gets, how good it reasonably gets, and how often it is a haul.

The model's captain

Bukayo Saka

MID · LEE (H) · 9.5m · owned by 14%

4.6

Projected

floor 2 7.5% a haul ceiling 8

Doubled by the captain's armband that is 4.6 points, from a floor of 4.

Gameweek 6 · 3-round window · feed of 01/10 11:39

Bukayo Saka is the model's captain for gameweek 6, at 4.57 projected points. It is a close call — only 0.01 separates him from Erling Haaland, which is inside the model's own error.

His modelled week runs from 2 to 8 points before the captain's armband doubles it, and reaches 10 or more 8% of the time. At safe the board puts Erling Haaland first, owned by 73.8%. The model's own pick is still Bukayo Saka, and he is marked as such in the list below.

His fixture

2 of 5

The model rates his home fixture a 2 out of five.

His ceiling

8.0

His is the highest ceiling on the board at 8.0 points, and he hauls 8% of the time.

His start

92%

He is 92% to start, which is about as close to nailed on as this model ever says.

Best differential

Bobby Thomas is the best differential on the board: owned by 8.5%, projected at 4.42.

See the differentials board →

The top five on this board

The board as your controls leave it — the same five that open the table below.

Ranked 1 Erling Haaland

FWD vs

4.6 Pts

floor 2 ceiling 6

Haul

7.8%

Start

92%

Own

74%

LIV (A)
Ranked 2 Bruno Fernandes

MID vs

4.4 Pts

floor 2 ceiling 8

Haul

7.1%

Start

92%

Own

39%

TOT (H)
Ranked 3 Riccardo Calafiori

DEF vs

4.1 Pts

floor 1 ceiling 7

Haul

4.1%

Start

92%

Own

51%

LEE (H)
Ranked 4 David Raya Martín

GKP vs

4.1 Pts

floor 1 ceiling 7

Haul

0.0%

Start

92%

Own

42%

LEE (H)
Ranked 5 Bukayo Saka

MID vs

4.6 Pts

floor 2 ceiling 8

Haul

7.5%

Start

92%

Own

14%

LEE (H)

Position

All GKP DEF MID FWD

Setting

Safe Balanced Aggressive

At least

Any Very safe Safe Rotation risk

Rounds ahead

3 rounds 5 rounds 8 rounds

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Showing 40 of 162 players 162 of 487 match your filters Clear filters

Player Fixture Price Pts Floor — ceiling Haul Start Own

1 Erling Haaland FWD vs LIV (A) 15.6m 4.6 2

6 7.8% 92% 74%

1 Erling Haaland 4.6

FWD vs LIV (A) · 15.6m

Haul: 7.8%
Start: 92%
Own: 74%

2 Bruno Fernandes MID vs TOT (H) 11.9m 4.4 2

8 7.1% 92% 39%

2 Bruno Fernandes 4.4

MID vs TOT (H) · 11.9m

Haul: 7.1%
Start: 92%
Own: 39%

3 Riccardo Calafiori DEF vs LEE (H) 5.8m 4.1 1

7 4.1% 92% 51%

3 Riccardo Calafiori 4.1

DEF vs LEE (H) · 5.8m

Haul: 4.1%
Start: 92%
Own: 51%

4 David Raya Martín GKP vs LEE (H) 6.1m 4.1 1

7 0.0% 92% 42%

4 David Raya Martín 4.1

GKP vs LEE (H) · 6.1m

Haul: 0.0%
Start: 92%
Own: 42%

5 Bukayo Saka MID vs Model's own LEE (H) 9.5m 4.6 2

8 7.5% 92% 14%

5 Bukayo Saka 4.6

MID vs LEE (H) · 9.5m

Haul: 7.5%
Start: 92%
Own: 14%

6 Bryan Mbeumo MID vs TOT (H) 7.9m 4.4 2

8 7.3% 92% 21%

6 Bryan Mbeumo 4.4

MID vs TOT (H) · 7.9m

Haul: 7.3%
Start: 92%
Own: 21%

7 Gabriel Magalhães DEF vs LEE (H) 8.0m 4.3 1

8 4.6% 92% 23%

7 Gabriel Magalhães 4.3

DEF vs LEE (H) · 8.0m

Haul: 4.6%
Start: 92%
Own: 23%

8 Bobby Thomas DEF vs NEW (H) 4.0m 4.4 1

8 5.5% 92% 8.5%

8 Bobby Thomas 4.4

DEF vs NEW (H) · 4.0m

Haul: 5.5%
Start: 92%
Own: 8.5%

9 Morgan Rogers MID vs BOU (H) 7.7m 3.7 2

7 4.4% 92% 41%

9 Morgan Rogers 3.7

MID vs BOU (H) · 7.7m

Haul: 4.4%
Start: 92%
Own: 41%

10 Pascal Groß MID vs SUN (A) 5.8m 3.8 2

7 3.3% 92% 29%

10 Pascal Groß 3.8

MID vs SUN (A) · 5.8m

Haul: 3.3%
Start: 92%
Own: 29%

11 Martin Ødegaard MID vs LEE (H) 6.8m 3.9 2

7 3.3% 92% 20%

11 Martin Ødegaard 3.9

MID vs LEE (H) · 6.8m

Haul: 3.3%
Start: 92%
Own: 20%

12 Dominik Szoboszlai MID vs MCI (H) 7.0m 3.7 2

7 4.1% 92% 33%

12 Dominik Szoboszlai 3.7

MID vs MCI (H) · 7.0m

Haul: 4.1%
Start: 92%
Own: 33%

13 James Tarkowski DEF vs HUL (A) 6.2m 3.9 1

8 2.2% 92% 17%

13 James Tarkowski 3.9

DEF vs HUL (A) · 6.2m

Haul: 2.2%
Start: 92%
Own: 17%

14 Morgan Gibbs-White MID vs CRY (A) 8.0m 3.9 2

7 3.9% 92% 16%

14 Morgan Gibbs-White 3.9

MID vs CRY (A) · 8.0m

Haul: 3.9%
Start: 92%
Own: 16%

15 Thierno Barry FWD vs HUL (A) 5.7m 4.0 2

6 7.3% 92% 8.3%

15 Thierno Barry 4.0

FWD vs HUL (A) · 5.7m

Haul: 7.3%
Start: 92%
Own: 8.3%

16 John Egan DEF vs EVE (H) 4.1m 4.0 1

8 3.0% 92% 7.0%

16 John Egan 4.0

DEF vs EVE (H) · 4.1m

Haul: 3.0%
Start: 92%
Own: 7.0%

17 Alex Scott MID vs CHE (A) 6.1m 4.0 2

7 2.7% 92% 5.8%

17 Alex Scott 4.0

MID vs CHE (A) · 6.1m

Haul: 2.7%
Start: 92%
Own: 5.8%

18 Igor Thiago FWD vs AVL (A) 7.8m 3.9 2

6 8.3% 92% 9.1%

18 Igor Thiago 3.9

FWD vs AVL (A) · 7.8m

Haul: 8.3%
Start: 92%
Own: 9.1%

19 Yoane Wissa FWD vs COV (A) 6.2m 3.7 2

6 6.2% 92% 19%

19 Yoane Wissa 3.7

FWD vs COV (A) · 6.2m

Haul: 6.2%
Start: 92%
Own: 19%

20 Enzo Le Fée MID vs BHA (H) 5.7m 4.0 2

8 6.2% 92% 3.4%

20 Enzo Le Fée 4.0

MID vs BHA (H) · 5.7m

Haul: 6.2%
Start: 92%
Own: 3.4%

21 Marcus Tavernier MID vs CHE (A) 6.1m 3.9 2

7 3.6% 92% 6.8%

21 Marcus Tavernier 3.9

MID vs CHE (A) · 6.1m

Haul: 3.6%
Start: 92%
Own: 6.8%

22 Vitaly Janelt MID vs AVL (A) 5.0m 4.0 2

7 3.3% 92% 2.5%

22 Vitaly Janelt 4.0

MID vs AVL (A) · 5.0m

Haul: 3.3%
Start: 92%
Own: 2.5%

23 Granit Xhaka MID vs BHA (H) 5.5m 4.0 2

7 3.4% 92% 3.6%

23 Granit Xhaka 4.0

MID vs BHA (H) · 5.5m

Haul: 3.4%
Start: 92%
Own: 3.6%

24 Kevin Schade MID vs AVL (A) 6.2m 3.8 2

7 3.3% 92% 12%

24 Kevin Schade 3.8

MID vs AVL (A) · 6.2m

Haul: 3.3%
Start: 92%
Own: 12%

25 Konstantinos Tzolakis GKP vs EVE (H) 4.7m 3.8 1

7 0.0% 92% 13%

25 Konstantinos Tzolakis 3.8

GKP vs EVE (H) · 4.7m

Haul: 0.0%
Start: 92%
Own: 13%

26 Gonzalo García FWD vs IPS (A) 6.0m 3.9 2

6 6.8% 92% 4.0%

26 Gonzalo García 3.9

FWD vs IPS (A) · 6.0m

Haul: 6.8%
Start: 92%
Own: 4.0%

27 Senne Lammens GKP vs TOT (H) 4.9m 3.8 1

7 0.0% 92% 9.9%

27 Senne Lammens 3.8

GKP vs TOT (H) · 4.9m

Haul: 0.0%
Start: 92%
Own: 9.9%

28 Lewis Hall DEF vs COV (A) 5.3m 3.6 1

7 2.3% 92% 17%

28 Lewis Hall 3.6

DEF vs COV (A) · 5.3m

Haul: 2.3%
Start: 92%
Own: 17%

29 James Trafford GKP vs ARS (A) 5.0m 3.7 1

7 0.0% 92% 5.5%

29 James Trafford 3.7

GKP vs ARS (A) · 5.0m

Haul: 0.0%
Start: 92%
Own: 5.5%

30 António Silva DEF vs CHE (A) 5.0m 3.8 1

8 4.5% 92% 0.4%

30 António Silva 3.8

DEF vs CHE (A) · 5.0m

Haul: 4.5%
Start: 92%
Own: 0.4%

31 Murillo DEF vs CRY (A) 5.5m 3.8 1

8 3.4% 92% 2.1%

31 Murillo 3.8

DEF vs CRY (A) · 5.5m

Haul: 3.4%
Start: 92%
Own: 2.1%

32 Anton Stach MID vs ARS (A) 6.0m 3.7 2

7 1.8% 92% 2.5%

32 Anton Stach 3.7

MID vs ARS (A) · 6.0m

Haul: 1.8%
Start: 92%
Own: 2.5%

33 Chris Richards DEF vs NFO (H) 4.9m 3.8 1

8 2.8% 92% 0.6%

33 Chris Richards 3.8

DEF vs NFO (H) · 4.9m

Haul: 2.8%
Start: 92%
Own: 0.6%

34 Matheus Cunha MID vs TOT (H) 7.9m 3.6 2

7 2.6% 92% 5.8%

34 Matheus Cunha 3.6

MID vs TOT (H) · 7.9m

Haul: 2.6%
Start: 92%
Own: 5.8%

35 Jay Dasilva DEF vs NEW (H) 4.0m 3.7 1

7 3.6% 92% 0.7%

35 Jay Dasilva 3.7

DEF vs NEW (H) · 4.0m

Haul: 3.6%
Start: 92%
Own: 0.7%

36 Emersonn FWD vs FUL (H) 5.5m 3.6 1

6 4.8% 92% 3.5%

36 Emersonn 3.6

FWD vs FUL (H) · 5.5m

Haul: 4.8%
Start: 92%
Own: 3.5%

37 Oli McBurnie FWD vs EVE (H) 5.5m 3.6 2

6 6.5% 92% 1.9%

37 Oli McBurnie 3.6

FWD vs EVE (H) · 5.5m

Haul: 6.5%
Start: 92%
Own: 1.9%

38 Alisson Becker GKP vs MCI (H) 5.5m 3.6 1

7 0.0% 92% 4.1%

38 Alisson Becker 3.6

GKP vs MCI (H) · 5.5m

Haul: 0.0%
Start: 92%
Own: 4.1%

39 Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall MID vs HUL (A) 6.6m 3.5 2

7 2.8% 92% 6.0%

39 Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall 3.5

MID vs HUL (A) · 6.6m

Haul: 2.8%
Start: 92%
Own: 6.0%

40 Jarrad Branthwaite DEF vs HUL (A) 5.5m 3.6 1

8 2.3% 92% 2.4%

40 Jarrad Branthwaite 3.6

DEF vs HUL (A) · 5.5m

Haul: 2.3%
Start: 92%
Own: 2.4%

the week a footballer's usually falls in the projection every bar on one axis of 0 to 12 points

What a floor and a ceiling are here

The floor is the 10th percentile of a modelled week and the ceiling is the 90th — the range a footballer's week usually falls in, not the worst and best he has ever had. The haul column is how often that week reaches 10 points.

Bonus points are projected nowhere on this site, so the ceiling is a ceiling on modelled scoring rather than on Fantasy points. Every other figure here excludes them too.

The spread is composed from the same parts the projection beside it is: its average is that projection, so the two cannot tell a reader different things about the same footballer.

The setting reweights the ranking by ownership and changes no arithmetic of its own. The model's own pick stays on the page at every setting, and the verdict at the top is always his.

Every figure here is what he scores, not what the captain's armband makes of it. Captaining him doubles all of it — the floor as well as the ceiling.

The board is every player the game would let you field, the flagged included — whether a doubtful player is worth picking is a judgement the projection makes with his published chance of playing, not one made by hiding him.

What is measured here, and what is not

Measured The projected points

Replayed against gameweek 2 after it was played: an average miss of 1.617 points a player, against 1.842 for “predict what he has averaged so far”, over 456 players. Recorded Sunday, 6 September 2026 and refreshed by hand, so the date is part of the claim.
Not measured The floor, the ceiling and the chance of a haul

Percentiles of a week composed from the same rates the projection uses. They reconcile with it by construction, which is not the same as having been checked against a round anybody played — nothing on this site has scored a floor or a ceiling.