Atlético Madrid 3:2 Rayo Vallecano: xG & match report · La Liga

Wednesday, 24/09/2025 at 21:30

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Match report · La Liga

Atlético Madrid Home 3.61 xG · 20 shots

Rayo Vallecano Away 1.60 xG · 9 shots

32 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

15' Julián Alvarez Atlético Madrid · 0.35 xG chance 1–0
45' Pep Chavarría Rayo Vallecano · 0.01 xG chance 1–1
77' Álvaro García Rayo Vallecano · 0.61 xG chance 1–2
80' Julián Alvarez Atlético Madrid · 0.26 xG chance 2–2
88' Julián Alvarez Atlético Madrid · 0.05 xG chance 3–2

The shots behind it

Atlético Madrid Rayo Vallecano

Shots: 20; 9
On target: 8; 3
Inside the box: 17; 5
xG per shot: 0.18; 0.18
Open play xG: 3.48; 1.53
Set-piece xG: 0.19; 0.08
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 3.66 for Atlético Madrid and 1.60 for Rayo Vallecano.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

29 shots · 5.28 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Atlético Madrid
Rayo Vallecano
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Atlético Madrid

1.47 xG created 0.86 xGA

L 1.10 created, 1.26 conceded against Espanyol
D 1.74 created, 0.57 conceded against Elche
D 1.09 created, 0.92 conceded against Deportivo Alavés
W 1.17 created, 0.97 conceded against Villarreal
D 2.26 created, 0.60 conceded against Mallorca

Rayo Vallecano

1.52 xG created 1.30 xGA

W 3.43 created, 0.56 conceded against Girona FC
L 0.29 created, 1.51 conceded against Athletic Club
D 1.85 created, 1.83 conceded against Barcelona
L 1.04 created, 1.77 conceded against Osasuna
D 0.99 created, 0.81 conceded against Celta Vigo

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.