Getafe 1:0 Racing de Santander: xG & match report · La Liga

Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 19:30

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Match report · La Liga

Getafe Home 1.24 xG · 12 shots

Racing de Santander Away 1.31 xG · 6 shots

10 The chances were evenly matched

A draw was the model's likeliest result before kick-off at 36%. Getafe won 1–0. The biggest difference was Racing de Santander's attack: 1.31 xG against 0.92 projected (+0.39).

Goals

81' Enes Ünal Getafe · 0.89 xG chance 1–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Getafe: 36% What happened
Draw: 36%
Racing de Santander: 29%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 1 match in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Getafe 1.04 1.24 +0.20

Racing de Santander 0.92 1.31 +0.39

Racing de Santander produced 0.39 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Getafe Racing de Santander

Shots: 12; 6
On target: 1; 3
Inside the box: 5; 6
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.17
Open play xG: 1.14; 0.19
Set-piece xG: 0.10; 0.02
Penalties: 0; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.21 for Racing de Santander.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

18 shots · 2.27 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Getafe
Racing de Santander
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Getafe

0.81 xG created 0.81 xGA

L 1.38 created, 0.83 conceded against Rayo Vallecano
D 1.36 created, 0.54 conceded against Real Oviedo
W 1.58 created, 0.41 conceded against Mallorca
L 0.11 created, 0.66 conceded against Elche
W 0.21 created, 0.51 conceded against Osasuna
L 0.24 created, 1.93 conceded against Deportivo Alavés

Racing de Santander

1.87 xG created 0.67 xGA

D 1.87 created, 0.67 conceded against Villarreal

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost

Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Getafe against Racing de Santander before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Racing de Santander to win	4.10	+17.0%	Lost
Draw	2.88	+3.3%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Getafe	35.5%	43.4%	−7.9 pp	2.81
Draw	35.9%	33.2%	+2.7 pp	2.78
Racing de Santander	28.5%	23.3%	+5.2 pp	3.50

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	44.8%	42.3%	+2.5 pp	2.23
Both teams not to score	55.2%	57.7%	−2.5 pp	1.81
Over 1.5 goals	62.6%	60.2%	+2.4 pp	1.60
Under 1.5 goals	37.4%	39.8%	−2.4 pp	2.68
Over 2.5 goals	31.2%	34.4%	−3.3 pp	3.21
Under 2.5 goals	68.8%	65.6%	+3.3 pp	1.45

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Getafe sample: 20 matches
Racing de Santander sample: 1 match
Computed: 5 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 days before kick-off

Warnings

Racing de Santander has only 1 match in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.