Osasuna 0:0 Levante UD: xG & match report · La Liga

Monday, 24/08/2026 at 19:30

Full time

Match report · La Liga

Osasuna Home 0.70 xG · 12 shots

Levante UD Away 1.28 xG · 11 shots

00 Levante UD had the better chances, but it finished level

Osasuna were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was Osasuna's attack: 0.70 xG against 1.53 projected (−0.83).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Osasuna: 47%
Draw: 30% What happened
Levante UD: 23%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Osasuna 1.53 0.70 -0.83

Levante UD 1.05 1.28 +0.23

Osasuna produced 0.83 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Osasuna Levante UD

Shots: 12; 11
On target: 7; 1
Inside the box: 7; 5
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.12
Open play xG: 0.32; 0.89
Set-piece xG: 0.36; 0.45
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.68 for Osasuna and 1.31 for Levante UD.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

23 shots · 2.02 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Osasuna
Levante UD
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Osasuna

1.23 xG created 1.25 xGA

W 1.43 created, 0.40 conceded against Sevilla
L 0.80 created, 1.29 conceded against Barcelona
L 0.63 created, 3.22 conceded against Levante UD
L 2.30 created, 1.56 conceded against Atlético Madrid
L 1.72 created, 0.79 conceded against Espanyol
L 0.51 created, 0.21 conceded against Getafe

Levante UD

1.74 xG created 1.42 xGA

L 0.76 created, 2.36 conceded against Villarreal
W 3.22 created, 0.63 conceded against Osasuna
W 1.52 created, 2.18 conceded against Celta Vigo
W 2.39 created, 0.30 conceded against Mallorca
L 2.28 created, 1.51 conceded against Real Betis
L 0.28 created, 1.55 conceded against Espanyol

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Osasuna: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged1 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Osasuna against Levante UD before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.91	+8.3%	Lost
Levante UD 2+ goals	3.75	+5.9%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.36	+5.2%	Lost
Draw	3.50	+4.8%	Won
Levante UD to score	1.53	+4.0%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	2.10	+2.5%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Osasuna	47.1%	51.1%	−4.1 pp	2.12
Draw	29.9%	27.0%	+2.9 pp	3.34
Levante UD	23.0%	21.8%	+1.2 pp	4.35

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Osasuna to score	81.0%	78.3%	+2.7 pp	1.23
Osasuna not to score	19.0%	21.7%	−2.7 pp	5.27
Levante UD to score	67.8%	60.8%	+7.1 pp	1.47
Levante UD not to score	32.2%	39.2%	−7.1 pp	3.11
Both teams to score	56.7%	50.0%	+6.7 pp	1.76
Both teams not to score	43.3%	50.0%	−6.7 pp	2.31
Osasuna 2+ goals	46.7%	46.3%	+0.4 pp	2.14
Osasuna at most 1 goal	53.3%	53.7%	−0.4 pp	1.88
Levante UD 2+ goals	28.2%	25.0%	+3.2 pp	3.54
Levante UD at most 1 goal	71.8%	75.0%	−3.2 pp	1.39
Over 1.5 goals	77.1%	70.1%	+7.0 pp	1.30
Under 1.5 goals	22.9%	29.9%	−7.0 pp	4.37
Over 2.5 goals	48.8%	45.1%	+3.7 pp	2.05
Under 2.5 goals	51.2%	54.9%	−3.7 pp	1.95

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Osasuna sample: 20 matches
Levante UD sample: 20 matches
Computed: 5 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.