Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 20:45
Kicked offParis Saint-Germain – Stade Rennais
Model not yet run Best odds updated 21 August, 10:35
What the model expects
- Paris Saint-Germain
- 59%
- Draw
- 24%
- Stade Rennais
- 16%
| Paris Saint-Germain | Draw | Stade Rennais | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.68 | 4.10 | 6.17 |
- Total goals
- 3.06
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61%
- Both teams to score
- 62%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 7 outcomes.
-
Paris Saint-Germain
- Model
- 59.4%
- Market, margin removed
- 16.5%
- Probability gap
- +42.8 pp
- Edge
- +241.5%
- Fair odds
- 1.68
- Market odds
- 5.75 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 1.77
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.1%
-
Draw
- Model
- 24.4%
- Market, margin removed
- 20.0%
- Probability gap
- +4.4 pp
- Edge
- +15.9%
- Fair odds
- 4.10
- Market odds
- 4.75 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.30
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.1%
-
Stade Rennais
- Model
- 16.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 63.4%
- Probability gap
- −47.2 pp
- Edge
- −75.7%
- Fair odds
- 6.17
- Market odds
- 1.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 6.48
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.1%
Outcomes with value
Paris Saint-Germain to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Stade Rennais not to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Stade Rennais at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Paris Saint-Germain 2+ goals
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Paris Saint-Germain to score
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Best opportunity
Paris Saint-Germain to win
Model 59.4% vs. bookmaker 16.5%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Paris Saint-Germain
59% Paris Saint-Germain to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 16th
- Paris Saint-Germain attack v Stade Rennais defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 5th
- Paris Saint-Germain defence v Stade Rennais attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.48 vs +0.05
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.01 – 1.05
- Paris Saint-Germain v Stade Rennais
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Paris Saint-Germain | Stade Rennais |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.28 · 1st | 1.76 · 7th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.14 · 2nd | 2.27 · 17th |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.14 · 2nd | -0.51 · 13th |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.06 · 2nd | 1.08 · 15th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.48 | +0.05 |
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Paris Saint-Germain sample
- 20 matches
- Stade Rennais sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Paris Saint-Germain
- 1 match
- Away xG sample · Stade Rennais
- 2 matches
- Odds updated
- 43 days ago · over a day old
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.