Toulouse 0:2 Olympique Lyonnais: xG & match report · Ligue 1

Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Ligue 1

Toulouse Home 2.77 xG · 17 shots

Olympique Lyonnais Away 0.70 xG · 11 shots

02 The result went against the chances

Toulouse were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. Olympique Lyonnais won 2–0. The biggest difference was Toulouse's attack: 2.77 xG against 1.29 projected (+1.48). Olympique Lyonnais produced 0.70 xG against 1.10 projected (−0.40).

Goals

68' Noah Nartey Olympique Lyonnais · 0.08 xG chance 0–1
85' Malick Fofana Olympique Lyonnais · 0.05 xG chance 0–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Toulouse: 39%
Draw: 32%
Olympique Lyonnais: 29% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Toulouse 1.29 2.77 +1.48

Olympique Lyonnais 1.10 0.70 -0.40

Toulouse produced 1.48 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Toulouse Olympique Lyonnais

Shots: 17; 11
On target: 2; 3
Inside the box: 12; 7
xG per shot: 0.15; 0.06
Open play xG: 1.26; 0.61
Set-piece xG: 1.34; 0.05
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.61 for Toulouse and 0.65 for Olympique Lyonnais.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

28 shots · 3.26 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Toulouse
Olympique Lyonnais
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Toulouse

0.96 xG created 1.76 xGA

L 0.16 created, 1.79 conceded against Paris Saint-Germain
L 0.96 created, 2.31 conceded against Lille
L 0.41 created, 3.76 conceded against RC Lens
D 1.75 created, 0.74 conceded against AS Monaco
W 1.36 created, 0.41 conceded against RC Strasbourg
W 1.13 created, 1.54 conceded against Olympique Lyonnais

Olympique Lyonnais

1.75 xG created 1.50 xGA

W 1.16 created, 1.87 conceded against Lorient
W 0.62 created, 3.12 conceded against Paris Saint-Germain
W 2.12 created, 0.52 conceded against Auxerre
W 3.17 created, 0.84 conceded against Stade Rennais
L 1.54 created, 1.13 conceded against Toulouse
L 1.91 created, 1.54 conceded against RC Lens

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Toulouse: 2 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged1 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Toulouse against Olympique Lyonnais before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.50	+13.2%	Lost
Olympique Lyonnais not to score	3.75	+13.2%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.00	+12.8%	Won
Olympique Lyonnais at most 1 goal	1.62	+12.4%	Lost
Toulouse to win	2.80	+8.1%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	4.00	+6.8%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Toulouse	38.6%	34.0%	+4.6 pp	2.59
Draw	32.3%	27.2%	+5.2 pp	3.09
Olympique Lyonnais	29.1%	38.8%	−9.8 pp	3.44

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Toulouse to score	75.1%	73.1%	+2.0 pp	1.33
Toulouse not to score	24.9%	26.9%	−2.0 pp	4.02
Olympique Lyonnais to score	69.8%	75.0%	−5.2 pp	1.43
Olympique Lyonnais not to score	30.2%	25.0%	+5.2 pp	3.31
Both teams to score	54.4%	55.7%	−1.4 pp	1.84
Both teams not to score	45.6%	44.3%	+1.4 pp	2.19
Toulouse 2+ goals	37.7%	39.2%	−1.5 pp	2.65
Toulouse at most 1 goal	62.3%	60.8%	+1.5 pp	1.60
Olympique Lyonnais 2+ goals	30.4%	42.3%	−11.9 pp	3.29
Olympique Lyonnais at most 1 goal	69.6%	57.7%	+11.9 pp	1.44
Over 1.5 goals	73.3%	76.2%	−2.9 pp	1.36
Under 1.5 goals	26.7%	23.8%	+2.9 pp	3.75
Over 2.5 goals	43.6%	52.6%	−9.1 pp	2.29
Under 2.5 goals	56.4%	47.4%	+9.1 pp	1.77

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Toulouse sample: 20 matches
Olympique Lyonnais sample: 20 matches
Computed: 11 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.