Troyes 0:0 Paris FC: xG & match report · Ligue 1

Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Ligue 1

Troyes Home 0.42 xG · 9 shots

Paris FC Away 1.80 xG · 10 shots

00 Paris FC had the better chances, but it finished level

Troyes were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was Troyes's attack: 0.42 xG against 1.45 projected (−1.03). Paris FC produced 1.80 xG against 1.12 projected (+0.68).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Troyes: 43%
Draw: 31% What happened
Paris FC: 26%

Data coverage The model has never seen one of these sides play. Every figure here rests on an exactly average stand-in for it, which is a guess in a projection's clothes.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Troyes 1.45 0.42 -1.03

Paris FC 1.12 1.80 +0.68

Troyes produced 1.03 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Troyes Paris FC

Shots: 9; 10
On target: 2; 1
Inside the box: 7; 5
xG per shot: 0.05; 0.18
Open play xG: 0.19; 1.75
Set-piece xG: 0.23; 0.00
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.78 for Paris FC.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

19 shots · 2.17 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Troyes
Paris FC
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Troyes

No match with expected goals behind it yet.

Paris FC

1.78 xG created 1.37 xGA

W 2.61 created, 2.31 conceded against AS Monaco
W 1.74 created, 1.01 conceded against Metz
L 1.06 created, 1.71 conceded against Lille
W 1.86 created, 0.79 conceded against Stade Brestois
L 1.20 created, 1.77 conceded against Stade Rennais
W 2.20 created, 0.61 conceded against Paris Saint-Germain

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged2 won1 lost

Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Troyes against Paris FC before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Troyes to win	3.10	+33.1%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.10	+7.8%	Won
Draw	3.40	+4.3%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Troyes	42.9%	30.7%	+12.3 pp	2.33
Draw	30.7%	28.0%	+2.7 pp	3.26
Paris FC	26.4%	41.3%	−15.0 pp	3.79

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	57.6%	58.9%	−1.2 pp	1.73
Both teams not to score	42.4%	41.1%	+1.2 pp	2.36
Over 1.5 goals	77.1%	78.0%	−0.9 pp	1.30
Under 1.5 goals	22.9%	22.0%	+0.9 pp	4.36
Over 2.5 goals	48.7%	54.9%	−6.2 pp	2.05
Under 2.5 goals	51.3%	45.1%	+6.2 pp	1.95

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Troyes sample: 0 matches
Paris FC sample: 20 matches
Computed: 11 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Warnings

There is not a single played match in the database for Troyes — the estimate for that side is the league average and nothing else.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.