Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 18:00
Full timeDAC 1904 5:0 FK Železiarne Podbrezová
DAC 1904 were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 56%. They won 5–0. The biggest difference was FK Železiarne Podbrezová's attack: 0.49 xG against 1.29 projected (−0.80).
The model against the result
- DAC 1904
- 56% What happened
- Draw
- 24%
- FK Železiarne Podbrezová
- 20%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FK Železiarne Podbrezová produced 0.80 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 18
- 12
- On target
- 7
- 0
- Inside the box
- 11
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.04
Recent form
1.60 xG created 1.40 xGA
- W 1.75 created, 1.06 conceded against MŠK Žilina
- L 0.92 created, 1.11 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava
- L 1.61 created, 1.32 conceded against MFK Zemplín Michalovce
- W 1.43 created, 1.31 conceded against FC Spartak Trnava
- D 1.21 created, 2.41 conceded against MFK Ružomberok
- W 2.68 created, 1.21 conceded against KFC Komárno
1.30 xG created 1.64 xGA
- W 1.30 created, 0.83 conceded against MFK Zemplín Michalovce
- L 0.60 created, 1.83 conceded against FC Spartak Trnava
- L 1.10 created, 1.95 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava
- W 1.63 created, 0.30 conceded against MŠK Žilina
- L 0.98 created, 3.14 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava
- W 2.16 created, 1.80 conceded against AS Trenčín
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
No value opportunities met the model's threshold before kick-off.
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAC 1904 | 55.7% | 53.9% | +1.8 pp | 1.80 |
| Draw | 24.0% | 23.3% | +0.7 pp | 4.16 |
| FK Železiarne Podbrezová | 20.3% | 22.8% | −2.5 pp | 4.92 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- DAC 1904 sample
- 20 matches
- FK Železiarne Podbrezová sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.