Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 18:00
Full timeMFK Zemplín Michalovce 2:0 MFK Skalica
MFK Zemplín Michalovce were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. They won 2–0.
The model against the result
- MFK Zemplín Michalovce
- 48% What happened
- Draw
- 29%
- MFK Skalica
- 23%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.14 xG created 1.57 xGA
- L 1.32 created, 2.53 conceded against MŠK Žilina
- W 1.32 created, 1.61 conceded against DAC 1904
- W 1.85 created, 0.56 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava
- L 1.42 created, 0.76 conceded against MŠK Žilina
- D 0.65 created, 1.21 conceded against KFC Komárno
- L 0.26 created, 2.73 conceded against FC Spartak Trnava
1.38 xG created 1.45 xGA
- W 2.13 created, 1.29 conceded against FC Košice
- L 0.04 created, 1.24 conceded against 1. FC Tatran Prešov
- W 0.67 created, 0.42 conceded against MFK Ružomberok
- W 1.95 created, 1.55 conceded against MFK Ružomberok
- W 1.08 created, 3.25 conceded against MŠK Žilina
- L 2.43 created, 0.93 conceded against FC Košice
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.50 | +1.0% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | +0.3% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MFK Zemplín Michalovce | 47.8% | 47.3% | +0.4 pp | 2.09 |
| Draw | 28.9% | 27.1% | +1.8 pp | 3.47 |
| MFK Skalica | 23.4% | 25.6% | −2.2 pp | 4.28 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 60.2% | 55.7% | +4.4 pp | 1.66 |
| Both teams not to score | 39.8% | 44.3% | −4.4 pp | 2.51 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.4% | 52.4% | +1.0 pp | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.6% | 47.6% | −1.0 pp | 2.15 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- MFK Zemplín Michalovce sample
- 20 matches
- MFK Skalica sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.