Botev Vratsa 1:0 Botev Plovdiv: xG & match report · Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Monday, 24/08/2026 at 18:00

Full time

Match report · Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Botev Vratsa Home 0.54 xG

Botev Plovdiv Away 0.77 xG

10 The chances were evenly matched

Botev Plovdiv were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. Botev Vratsa won 1–0. The biggest difference was Botev Plovdiv's attack: 0.77 xG against 1.42 projected (−0.65). Botev Vratsa produced 0.54 xG against 1.12 projected (−0.58).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Botev Vratsa: 27% What happened
Draw: 31%
Botev Plovdiv: 42%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Botev Vratsa 1.12 0.54 -0.58

Botev Plovdiv 1.42 0.77 -0.65

Botev Plovdiv produced 0.65 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Botev Vratsa Botev Plovdiv

Shots: 9; 8
On target: 3; 4
Inside the box: 3; 5
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.10

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Botev Vratsa

0.97 xG created 1.30 xGA

W 0.39 created, 0.00 conceded against PFK Montana 1921
W 1.24 created, 1.54 conceded against FK Dobrudzha Dobrich
D 0.95 created, 0.55 conceded against Cherno More Varna
L 1.16 created, 0.89 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
L 1.17 created, 3.72 conceded against Ludogorets
L 0.93 created, 1.09 conceded against Slavia Sofia

Botev Plovdiv

2.06 xG created 1.13 xGA

L 1.91 created, 0.74 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
W 2.68 created, 1.15 conceded against Cherno More Varna
D 2.29 created, 0.53 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia
L 2.39 created, 1.54 conceded against CSKA Sofia
W 2.29 created, 0.25 conceded against Cherno More Varna
L 0.81 created, 2.58 conceded against Ludogorets

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Botev Vratsa: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged1 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Botev Vratsa against Botev Plovdiv before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.50	+8.7%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.80	+3.1%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.33	+2.0%	Lost
Botev Vratsa to score	1.44	+1.7%	Won
Botev Vratsa 2+ goals	3.25	+1.1%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	2.10	+0.4%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Botev Vratsa	26.9%	26.1%	+0.8 pp	3.72
Draw	31.1%	26.9%	+4.2 pp	3.22
Botev Plovdiv	42.1%	47.0%	−5.0 pp	2.38

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Botev Vratsa to score	70.5%	64.5%	+6.0 pp	1.42
Botev Vratsa not to score	29.5%	35.5%	−6.0 pp	3.39
Botev Plovdiv to score	78.7%	76.6%	+2.1 pp	1.27
Botev Plovdiv not to score	21.3%	23.4%	−2.1 pp	4.69
Both teams to score	57.3%	51.5%	+5.8 pp	1.75
Both teams not to score	42.7%	48.5%	−5.8 pp	2.34
Botev Vratsa 2+ goals	31.1%	29.1%	+2.0 pp	3.21
Botev Vratsa at most 1 goal	68.9%	70.9%	−2.0 pp	1.45
Botev Plovdiv 2+ goals	42.7%	44.3%	−1.5 pp	2.34
Botev Plovdiv at most 1 goal	57.3%	55.7%	+1.5 pp	1.75
Over 1.5 goals	76.5%	70.9%	+5.6 pp	1.31
Under 1.5 goals	23.5%	29.1%	−5.6 pp	4.26
Over 2.5 goals	47.8%	44.7%	+3.1 pp	2.09
Under 2.5 goals	52.2%	55.3%	−3.1 pp	1.92

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Botev Vratsa sample: 20 matches
Botev Plovdiv sample: 20 matches
Computed: 4 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 4 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.