Cherno More Varna 3:1 FK Dunav Ruse: xG & match report · Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Friday, 21/08/2026 at 20:15

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Match report · Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Cherno More Varna Home

FK Dunav Ruse Away

Cherno More Varna were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. They won 3–1.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Cherno More Varna: 42% What happened
Draw: 32%
FK Dunav Ruse: 26%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Cherno More Varna

0.85 xG created 1.72 xGA

W 0.53 created, 1.32 conceded against Lokomotiv Plovdiv
L 1.15 created, 2.68 conceded against Botev Plovdiv
D 0.55 created, 0.95 conceded against Botev Vratsa
L 1.94 created, 1.60 conceded against FK Spartak Varna
L 0.25 created, 2.29 conceded against Botev Plovdiv
L 0.68 created, 1.50 conceded against Ludogorets

FK Dunav Ruse

0.87 xG created 2.28 xGA

L 1.13 created, 2.59 conceded against Levski Sofia
L 0.81 created, 2.12 conceded against Ludogorets
L 0.34 created, 1.81 conceded against CSKA Sofia
L 1.20 created, 2.59 conceded against Arda Kardzhali

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged3 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Cherno More Varna against FK Dunav Ruse before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FK Dunav Ruse to win	5.00	+30.1%	Lost
FK Dunav Ruse 2+ goals	4.50	+27.3%	Lost
Draw	4.00	+27.1%	Lost
FK Dunav Ruse to score	1.73	+17.2%	Won
Both teams to score	2.10	+14.0%	Won
Cherno More Varna not to score	5.00	+14.0%	Lost
Cherno More Varna at most 1 goal	1.83	+8.9%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.36	+0.6%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Cherno More Varna	42.2%	57.9%	−15.7 pp	2.37
Draw	31.8%	23.4%	+8.4 pp	3.15
FK Dunav Ruse	26.0%	18.7%	+7.3 pp	3.84

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Cherno More Varna to score	77.2%	81.1%	−3.9 pp	1.30
Cherno More Varna not to score	22.8%	18.9%	+3.9 pp	4.39
FK Dunav Ruse to score	67.9%	53.7%	+14.2 pp	1.47
FK Dunav Ruse not to score	32.1%	46.3%	−14.2 pp	3.11
Both teams to score	54.3%	44.3%	+10.0 pp	1.84
Both teams not to score	45.7%	55.7%	−10.0 pp	2.19
Cherno More Varna 2+ goals	40.6%	50.0%	−9.4 pp	2.46
Cherno More Varna at most 1 goal	59.4%	50.0%	+9.4 pp	1.68
FK Dunav Ruse 2+ goals	28.3%	20.8%	+7.5 pp	3.54
FK Dunav Ruse at most 1 goal	71.7%	79.2%	−7.5 pp	1.39
Over 1.5 goals	73.8%	68.7%	+5.0 pp	1.36
Under 1.5 goals	26.2%	31.3%	−5.0 pp	3.81
Over 2.5 goals	44.2%	44.7%	−0.5 pp	2.26
Under 2.5 goals	55.8%	55.3%	+0.5 pp	1.79

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Cherno More Varna sample: 20 matches
FK Dunav Ruse sample: 4 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Warnings

FK Dunav Ruse has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.