Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 18:00
Full timeFK Septemvri Sofia 1:0 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
FC CSKA 1948 Sofia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. FK Septemvri Sofia won 1–0. The biggest difference was FK Septemvri Sofia's attack: 0.49 xG against 0.98 projected (−0.49).
The model against the result
- FK Septemvri Sofia
- 28% What happened
- Draw
- 34%
- FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
- 38%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FK Septemvri Sofia produced 0.49 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 4
- 10
- On target
- 2
- 3
- Inside the box
- 2
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.10
Recent form
0.94 xG created 1.03 xGA
- D 0.30 created, 0.91 conceded against Botev Vratsa
- W 1.65 created, 0.99 conceded against FK Spartak Varna
- W 1.15 created, 0.52 conceded against Beroe Stara Zagora
- D 1.39 created, 0.66 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
- L 0.12 created, 2.38 conceded against Levski Sofia
- W 1.04 created, 0.73 conceded against FK Spartak Varna
1.97 xG created 1.08 xGA
- D 1.49 created, 0.58 conceded against CSKA Sofia
- W 3.06 created, 0.46 conceded against Ludogorets
- D 2.80 created, 0.79 conceded against FK Spartak Varna
- W 0.89 created, 1.16 conceded against Botev Vratsa
- W 1.05 created, 1.84 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
- W 2.54 created, 1.64 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged3 won1 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Septemvri Sofia to win | 7.00 | +93.2% | Won |
| Draw | 4.00 | +35.7% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.90 | +19.5% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 3.25 | +4.2% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Septemvri Sofia | 27.6% | 13.5% | +14.1 pp | 3.62 |
| Draw | 33.9% | 23.6% | +10.3 pp | 2.95 |
| FC CSKA 1948 Sofia | 38.5% | 62.9% | −24.4 pp | 2.60 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 49.1% | 46.3% | +2.8 pp | 2.03 |
| Both teams not to score | 50.9% | 53.7% | −2.8 pp | 1.97 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.9% | 71.6% | −3.7 pp | 1.47 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 32.1% | 28.4% | +3.7 pp | 3.12 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.1% | 50.0% | −12.9 pp | 2.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 62.9% | 50.0% | +12.9 pp | 1.59 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Septemvri Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- FC CSKA 1948 Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 4 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 days before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.