Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 18:00
Full timeLudogorets 1:1 Slavia Sofia
Ludogorets were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 75%. It finished 1–1.
The model against the result
- Ludogorets
- 75%
- Draw
- 18% What happened
- Slavia Sofia
- 7%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.89 xG created 1.41 xGA
- L 0.46 created, 3.06 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
- W 0.96 created, 1.91 conceded against Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- W 2.12 created, 0.81 conceded against FK Dunav Ruse
- W 3.72 created, 1.17 conceded against Botev Vratsa
- W 1.50 created, 0.68 conceded against Cherno More Varna
- W 2.58 created, 0.81 conceded against Botev Plovdiv
0.59 xG created 1.45 xGA
- L 0.30 created, 1.98 conceded against FK Dobrudzha Dobrich
- L 1.16 created, 0.79 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia
- D 0.37 created, 1.53 conceded against CSKA Sofia
- L 0.00 created, 2.57 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
- D 0.60 created, 0.91 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia
- W 1.09 created, 0.93 conceded against Botev Vratsa
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged2 won1 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | +1.3% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.65 | +0.8% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 2.00 | +0.6% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludogorets | 75.0% | 70.7% | +4.3 pp | 1.33 |
| Draw | 18.1% | 18.8% | −0.8 pp | 5.53 |
| Slavia Sofia | 7.0% | 10.5% | −3.5 pp | 14.38 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludogorets to score | 92.2% | 88.1% | +4.2 pp | 1.08 |
| Ludogorets not to score | 7.8% | 11.9% | −4.2 pp | 12.88 |
| Slavia Sofia to score | 53.4% | 50.0% | +3.4 pp | 1.87 |
| Slavia Sofia not to score | 46.6% | 50.0% | −3.4 pp | 2.14 |
| Both teams to score | 50.3% | 46.3% | +4.0 pp | 1.99 |
| Both teams not to score | 49.7% | 53.7% | −4.0 pp | 2.01 |
| Ludogorets 2+ goals | 70.7% | 66.3% | +4.5 pp | 1.41 |
| Ludogorets at most 1 goal | 29.3% | 33.7% | −4.5 pp | 3.42 |
| Slavia Sofia 2+ goals | 14.9% | 17.2% | −2.3 pp | 6.70 |
| Slavia Sofia at most 1 goal | 85.1% | 82.8% | +2.3 pp | 1.18 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.4% | 78.3% | +6.1 pp | 1.18 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15.6% | 21.7% | −6.1 pp | 6.43 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.1% | 57.1% | +3.9 pp | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.9% | 42.9% | −3.9 pp | 2.57 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Ludogorets sample
- 20 matches
- Slavia Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.