Bohemian FC 5:3 Derry City: xG & match report · Premier Division (Ireland)

Friday, 21/08/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Premier Division (Ireland)

Bohemian FC Home 2.32 xG

Derry City Away 1.39 xG

53 The scoreline reflected the chances

Bohemian FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. They won 5–3. The biggest difference was Bohemian FC's attack: 2.32 xG against 1.59 projected (+0.73). Derry City produced 1.39 xG against 1.05 projected (+0.34).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Bohemian FC: 48% What happened
Draw: 29%
Derry City: 22%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Bohemian FC 1.59 2.32 +0.73

Derry City 1.05 1.39 +0.34

Bohemian FC produced 0.73 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Bohemian FC Derry City

Shots: 21; 8
On target: 10; 6
Inside the box: 13; 6
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.17

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Bohemian FC

1.57 xG created 1.08 xGA

L 1.00 created, 0.78 conceded against Dundalk FC
W 1.25 created, 0.38 conceded against Shelbourne
W 2.14 created, 1.14 conceded against St. Patrick's Athletic
W 1.78 created, 2.28 conceded against Drogheda United
D 2.23 created, 0.24 conceded against Galway United
L 1.04 created, 1.66 conceded against Waterford FC

Derry City

1.33 xG created 1.47 xGA

L 1.47 created, 1.75 conceded against Galway United
D 1.31 created, 1.45 conceded against Shamrock Rovers
W 1.45 created, 0.41 conceded against Drogheda United
L 1.54 created, 3.29 conceded against Waterford FC
D 0.50 created, 1.67 conceded against St. Patrick's Athletic
W 1.68 created, 0.23 conceded against Sligo Rovers

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Bohemian FC: 1 won · 2 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged4 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Bohemian FC against Derry City before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.80	+3.3%	Won
Bohemian FC 2+ goals	2.10	+2.0%	Won
Derry City to score	1.50	+1.9%	Won
Bohemian FC to score	1.22	+0.2%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Bohemian FC	48.5%	46.6%	+1.9 pp	2.06
Draw	29.3%	26.7%	+2.6 pp	3.41
Derry City	22.2%	26.7%	−4.5 pp	4.50

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Bohemian FC to score	82.0%	76.6%	+5.4 pp	1.22
Bohemian FC not to score	18.0%	23.4%	−5.4 pp	5.55
Derry City to score	67.9%	62.5%	+5.4 pp	1.47
Derry City not to score	32.1%	37.5%	−5.4 pp	3.12
Both teams to score	57.4%	52.0%	+5.4 pp	1.74
Both teams not to score	42.6%	48.0%	−5.4 pp	2.35
Bohemian FC 2+ goals	48.6%	44.3%	+4.3 pp	2.06
Bohemian FC at most 1 goal	51.4%	55.7%	−4.3 pp	1.94
Derry City 2+ goals	28.3%	27.7%	+0.7 pp	3.53
Derry City at most 1 goal	71.7%	72.3%	−0.7 pp	1.40
Over 1.5 goals	78.1%	75.0%	+3.1 pp	1.28
Under 1.5 goals	21.9%	25.0%	−3.1 pp	4.56
Over 2.5 goals	50.3%	51.3%	−1.0 pp	1.99
Under 2.5 goals	49.7%	48.7%	+1.0 pp	2.01

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Bohemian FC sample: 20 matches
Derry City sample: 20 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.