Friday, 21/08/2026 at 20:45
Full timeDundalk FC 1:2 Galway United
Dundalk FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 57%. Galway United won 2–1. The biggest difference was Galway United's attack: 0.79 xG against 1.31 projected (−0.52).
The model against the result
- Dundalk FC
- 57%
- Draw
- 23%
- Galway United
- 20% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Galway United produced 0.52 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 27
- 5
- On target
- 4
- 3
- Inside the box
- 15
- 5
- xG per shot
- 0.08
- 0.16
Recent form
1.46 xG created 1.89 xGA
- L 1.47 created, 2.15 conceded against Waterford FC
- L 0.95 created, 1.93 conceded against Shelbourne
- L 1.44 created, 1.25 conceded against Drogheda United
- D 1.43 created, 1.98 conceded against St. Patrick's Athletic
- D 1.74 created, 1.35 conceded against Sligo Rovers
- L 1.72 created, 2.66 conceded against Shamrock Rovers
1.47 xG created 1.61 xGA
- L 2.40 created, 2.49 conceded against Shamrock Rovers
- L 0.48 created, 2.06 conceded against St. Patrick's Athletic
- W 2.28 created, 1.67 conceded against Sligo Rovers
- D 1.27 created, 0.62 conceded against Waterford FC
- D 0.24 created, 2.23 conceded against Bohemian FC
- D 2.18 created, 0.60 conceded against Drogheda United
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged6 won1 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Galway United 2+ goals | 3.00 | +15.6% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | +12.7% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 | +12.1% | Won |
| Dundalk FC 2+ goals | 1.67 | +10.9% | Lost |
| Galway United to score | 1.40 | +6.0% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | +4.5% | Won |
| Dundalk FC to score | 1.13 | +1.9% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundalk FC | 57.0% | 54.0% | +3.0 pp | 1.76 |
| Draw | 23.3% | 24.8% | −1.5 pp | 4.29 |
| Galway United | 19.7% | 21.2% | −1.5 pp | 5.07 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundalk FC to score | 90.6% | 84.2% | +6.4 pp | 1.10 |
| Dundalk FC not to score | 9.4% | 15.8% | −6.4 pp | 10.64 |
| Galway United to score | 75.7% | 66.3% | +9.5 pp | 1.32 |
| Galway United not to score | 24.3% | 33.7% | −9.5 pp | 4.12 |
| Both teams to score | 69.8% | 57.7% | +12.1 pp | 1.43 |
| Both teams not to score | 30.2% | 42.3% | −12.1 pp | 3.31 |
| Dundalk FC 2+ goals | 66.5% | 55.7% | +10.8 pp | 1.50 |
| Dundalk FC at most 1 goal | 33.5% | 44.3% | −10.8 pp | 2.99 |
| Galway United 2+ goals | 38.5% | 31.3% | +7.3 pp | 2.60 |
| Galway United at most 1 goal | 61.5% | 68.7% | −7.3 pp | 1.63 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.5% | 81.1% | +8.5 pp | 1.12 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 10.5% | 18.9% | −8.5 pp | 9.57 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.1% | 59.0% | +11.1 pp | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.9% | 41.0% | −11.1 pp | 3.34 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Dundalk FC sample
- 20 matches
- Galway United sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 10 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 10 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.