Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 12:00
Full timeAkron Togliatti 0:3 Krylya Sovetov Samara
Akron Togliatti were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. Krylya Sovetov Samara won 3–0.
The model against the result
- Akron Togliatti
- 39%
- Draw
- 27%
- Krylya Sovetov Samara
- 34% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.24 xG created 1.89 xGA
- W 0.51 created, 1.17 conceded against Baltika Kaliningrad
- L 0.35 created, 1.30 conceded against FK Krasnodar
- L 1.76 created, 1.29 conceded against FC Rostov
- L 2.02 created, 4.23 conceded against Krylya Sovetov Samara
- W 1.53 created, 1.01 conceded against Rotor Volgograd
- L 1.28 created, 2.35 conceded against Rotor Volgograd
1.84 xG created 1.71 xGA
- D 0.90 created, 0.17 conceded against CSKA Moscow
- L 0.82 created, 2.96 conceded against FC Sochi
- W 2.91 created, 1.37 conceded against Lokomotiv Moscow
- W 1.11 created, 1.52 conceded against FC Spartak Moscow
- L 1.04 created, 2.22 conceded against Orenburg
- W 4.23 created, 2.02 conceded against Akron Togliatti
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.78 | +17.8% | Won |
| Akron Togliatti to win | 2.92 | +15.3% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akron Togliatti | 39.5% | 32.5% | +6.9 pp | 2.53 |
| Draw | 26.9% | 28.5% | −1.7 pp | 3.72 |
| Krylya Sovetov Samara | 33.7% | 38.9% | −5.3 pp | 2.97 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.2% | 53.1% | +13.0 pp | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.8% | 46.9% | −13.0 pp | 2.95 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Akron Togliatti sample
- 20 matches
- Krylya Sovetov Samara sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 days before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.