Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 19:15
Full timeCSKA Moscow 3:2 Lokomotiv Moscow
Lokomotiv Moscow were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. CSKA Moscow won 3–2.
The model against the result
- CSKA Moscow
- 33% What happened
- Draw
- 26%
- Lokomotiv Moscow
- 41%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.21 xG created 1.56 xGA
- D 0.17 created, 0.90 conceded against Krylya Sovetov Samara
- D 0.85 created, 0.72 conceded against FC Rostov
- D 1.18 created, 1.88 conceded against Rubin Kazan
- L 1.35 created, 1.93 conceded against Zenit St. Petersburg
- W 2.54 created, 1.87 conceded against Pari Nizhny Novgorod
- W 1.19 created, 2.03 conceded against Lokomotiv Moscow
1.80 xG created 1.54 xGA
- D 1.82 created, 0.56 conceded against Zenit St. Petersburg
- L 1.37 created, 2.91 conceded against Krylya Sovetov Samara
- D 2.04 created, 0.44 conceded against Dynamo Moscow
- W 2.09 created, 2.24 conceded against Baltika Kaliningrad
- L 2.03 created, 1.19 conceded against CSKA Moscow
- D 1.44 created, 1.87 conceded against Akhmat Grozny
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged4 won1 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Moscow to win | 5.25 | +72.6% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | +27.4% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | +20.3% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | +10.0% | Won |
| Draw | 4.00 | +2.8% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Moscow | 32.9% | 18.0% | +14.9 pp | 3.04 |
| Draw | 25.7% | 23.6% | +2.1 pp | 3.89 |
| Lokomotiv Moscow | 41.4% | 58.4% | −17.0 pp | 2.41 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 73.8% | 53.7% | +20.1 pp | 1.36 |
| Both teams not to score | 26.2% | 46.3% | −20.1 pp | 3.81 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90.0% | 76.6% | +13.4 pp | 1.11 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 10.0% | 23.4% | −13.4 pp | 10.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.7% | 55.3% | +15.5 pp | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.3% | 44.7% | −15.5 pp | 3.42 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- CSKA Moscow sample
- 20 matches
- Lokomotiv Moscow sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 10 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.