Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 16:30
Full timeFC Spartak Moscow 1:1 Orenburg
FC Spartak Moscow were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 56%. It finished 1–1.
The model against the result
- FC Spartak Moscow
- 56%
- Draw
- 25% What happened
- Orenburg
- 19%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.82 xG created 0.98 xGA
- W 1.69 created, 1.19 conceded against Akhmat Grozny
- L 3.13 created, 1.22 conceded against FK Krasnodar
- W 1.71 created, 0.79 conceded against Pari Nizhny Novgorod
- L 1.52 created, 1.11 conceded against Krylya Sovetov Samara
- W 2.17 created, 0.97 conceded against Rubin Kazan
- D 0.72 created, 0.59 conceded against Dinamo Makhachkala
1.70 xG created 1.51 xGA
- L 1.15 created, 1.85 conceded against Lokomotiv Moscow
- W 2.94 created, 0.93 conceded against Pari Nizhny Novgorod
- W 1.37 created, 1.49 conceded against FC Rostov
- L 1.14 created, 1.06 conceded against FC Sochi
- W 2.22 created, 1.04 conceded against Krylya Sovetov Samara
- L 1.39 created, 2.69 conceded against FK Krasnodar
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orenburg to win | 8.07 | +46.5% | Lost |
| Draw | 5.24 | +26.7% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.63 | +2.3% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Spartak Moscow | 56.2% | 69.8% | −13.6 pp | 1.78 |
| Draw | 24.9% | 18.3% | +6.6 pp | 4.01 |
| Orenburg | 18.9% | 11.9% | +7.0 pp | 5.30 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.8% | 58.1% | +4.7 pp | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.2% | 41.9% | −4.7 pp | 2.69 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Spartak Moscow sample
- 20 matches
- Orenburg sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 6 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.