Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 16:30
Full timeFK Krasnodar 1:0 FC Rostov
FK Krasnodar were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 58%. They won 1–0.
The model against the result
- FK Krasnodar
- 58% What happened
- Draw
- 26%
- FC Rostov
- 17%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.87 xG created 1.46 xGA
- W 1.22 created, 3.13 conceded against FC Spartak Moscow
- W 2.18 created, 1.78 conceded against Dinamo Makhachkala
- W 1.30 created, 0.35 conceded against Akron Togliatti
- L 1.32 created, 1.31 conceded against Dynamo Moscow
- W 2.69 created, 1.39 conceded against Orenburg
- W 2.49 created, 0.79 conceded against Rubin Kazan
0.77 xG created 1.31 xGA
- L 0.29 created, 0.76 conceded against FC Sochi
- D 0.72 created, 0.85 conceded against CSKA Moscow
- L 1.49 created, 1.37 conceded against Orenburg
- W 0.32 created, 1.25 conceded against Dinamo Makhachkala
- W 1.29 created, 1.76 conceded against Akron Togliatti
- L 0.51 created, 1.88 conceded against Zenit St. Petersburg
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.01 | +13.4% | Lost |
| FK Krasnodar to win | 1.76 | +1.6% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Krasnodar | 57.8% | 54.7% | +3.2 pp | 1.73 |
| Draw | 25.6% | 25.6% | +0.0 pp | 3.90 |
| FC Rostov | 16.5% | 19.7% | −3.2 pp | 6.05 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.4% | 48.2% | +8.2 pp | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.6% | 51.8% | −8.2 pp | 2.29 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Krasnodar sample
- 20 matches
- FC Rostov sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 7 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 7 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.