Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 14:00
Full timeRodina Moscow 0:3 Baltika Kaliningrad
Baltika Kaliningrad were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. They won 3–0.
The model against the result
- Rodina Moscow
- 33%
- Draw
- 31%
- Baltika Kaliningrad
- 36% What happened
Data coverage The model has never seen one of these sides play. Every figure here rests on an exactly average stand-in for it, which is a guess in a projection's clothes.
Recent form
No match with expected goals behind it yet.
1.51 xG created 0.94 xGA
- D 0.58 created, 1.19 conceded against FK Krasnodar
- D 2.25 created, 0.62 conceded against Akhmat Grozny
- L 1.17 created, 0.51 conceded against Akron Togliatti
- L 0.44 created, 0.30 conceded against Rubin Kazan
- L 2.24 created, 2.09 conceded against Lokomotiv Moscow
- L 2.40 created, 0.91 conceded against Dynamo Moscow
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rodina Moscow to win | 3.95 | +32.4% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.50 | +6.9% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodina Moscow | 33.4% | 24.4% | +9.1 pp | 2.99 |
| Draw | 30.8% | 27.5% | +3.3 pp | 3.25 |
| Baltika Kaliningrad | 35.8% | 48.1% | −12.4 pp | 2.80 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.1% | 48.4% | +1.7 pp | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.9% | 51.6% | −1.7 pp | 2.00 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Rodina Moscow sample
- 0 matches
- Baltika Kaliningrad sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 4 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- There is not a single played match in the database for Rodina Moscow — the estimate for that side is the league average and nothing else.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.