Rubin Kazan 3:1 Dinamo Makhachkala: xG & match report · Russian Premier League

Sunday, 30/08/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · Russian Premier League

Rubin Kazan Home

Dinamo Makhachkala Away

Rubin Kazan were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. They won 3–1.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Rubin Kazan: 35% What happened
Draw: 34%
Dinamo Makhachkala: 31%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Rubin Kazan

1.26 xG created 1.39 xGA

D 1.94 created, 0.65 conceded against Akron Togliatti
W 1.65 created, 1.43 conceded against Dynamo Moscow
D 1.88 created, 1.18 conceded against CSKA Moscow
W 0.30 created, 0.44 conceded against Baltika Kaliningrad
L 0.97 created, 2.17 conceded against FC Spartak Moscow
L 0.79 created, 2.49 conceded against FK Krasnodar

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.03 xG created 0.88 xGA

L 1.78 created, 2.18 conceded against FK Krasnodar
L 1.25 created, 0.32 conceded against FC Rostov
D 0.66 created, 0.97 conceded against Akhmat Grozny
D 0.59 created, 0.72 conceded against FC Spartak Moscow
W 0.66 created, 0.70 conceded against Ural Yekaterinburg
W 1.21 created, 0.39 conceded against Ural Yekaterinburg

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Rubin Kazan: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost

Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Rubin Kazan against Dinamo Makhachkala before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Dinamo Makhachkala to win	3.41	+9.5%	Lost
Draw	3.08	+3.6%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Rubin Kazan	34.8%	40.4%	−5.5 pp	2.87
Draw	33.9%	31.3%	+2.5 pp	2.95
Dinamo Makhachkala	31.3%	28.3%	+3.0 pp	3.20

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Rubin Kazan sample: 20 matches
Dinamo Makhachkala sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.