Inter 3:2 Napoli: xG & match report · Serie A

Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · Serie A

Inter Home 3.86 xG · 29 shots

Napoli Away 2.43 xG · 16 shots

32 The scoreline reflected the chances

Inter were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was Inter's attack: 3.86 xG against 1.48 projected (+2.38). Napoli produced 2.43 xG against 0.94 projected (+1.49).

Goals

50' Matteo Politano Napoli · 0.16 xG chance 0–1
53' Rasmus Højlund Napoli · 0.03 xG chance 0–2
56' Lautaro Martínez Inter · 0.49 xG chance 1–2
82' Marcus Thuram Inter · 0.04 xG chance 2–2
90' Lautaro Martínez Inter · 0.34 xG chance 3–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Inter: 49% What happened
Draw: 31%
Napoli: 21%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Inter 1.48 3.86 +2.38

Napoli 0.94 2.43 +1.49

Inter produced 2.38 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Inter Napoli

Shots: 29; 16
On target: 8; 7
Inside the box: 20; 13
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.14
Open play xG: 2.17; 2.19
Set-piece xG: 0.99; 0.10
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 3.19 for Inter and 2.25 for Napoli.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

45 shots · 5.45 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Inter
Napoli
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Inter

2.06 xG created 0.87 xGA

W 2.09 created, 0.27 conceded against Parma
W 1.23 created, 0.63 conceded against Lazio
D 2.56 created, 1.19 conceded against Hellas Verona
D 1.78 created, 1.40 conceded against Bologna
W 1.05 created, 1.23 conceded against Monza
W 3.67 created, 0.48 conceded against Cagliari

Napoli

1.08 xG created 0.99 xGA

D 0.66 created, 1.79 conceded against Como
L 0.80 created, 1.26 conceded against Bologna
W 1.09 created, 0.82 conceded against Pisa
W 1.76 created, 0.37 conceded against Udinese
W 0.77 created, 0.67 conceded against Genoa
L 1.39 created, 1.05 conceded against Como

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Inter: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged1 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Inter against Napoli before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.80	+16.4%	Lost
Napoli to win	5.50	+14.7%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	1.91	+6.3%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.91	+0.8%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Inter	48.5%	57.7%	−9.1 pp	2.06
Draw	30.6%	25.0%	+5.6 pp	3.27
Napoli	20.9%	17.3%	+3.6 pp	4.80

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	52.8%	50.0%	+2.8 pp	1.89
Both teams not to score	47.2%	50.0%	−2.8 pp	2.12
Over 1.5 goals	73.8%	74.5%	−0.7 pp	1.35
Under 1.5 goals	26.2%	25.5%	+0.7 pp	3.82
Over 2.5 goals	44.3%	50.0%	−5.7 pp	2.26
Under 2.5 goals	55.7%	50.0%	+5.7 pp	1.80

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Inter sample: 20 matches
Napoli sample: 20 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.