Udinese 1:2 Lazio: xG & match report · Serie A

Monday, 07/09/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Serie A

Udinese Home 0.85 xG · 10 shots

Lazio Away 1.83 xG · 19 shots

12 The scoreline reflected the chances

Udinese were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. Lazio won 2–1. The biggest difference was Lazio's attack: 1.83 xG against 1.14 projected (+0.69). Udinese produced 0.85 xG against 1.27 projected (−0.42).

Goals

49' Jesper Karlström Udinese · 0.26 xG chance 1–0
75' Davide Frattesi Lazio · 0.61 xG chance 1–1
88' Albert Guðmundsson Lazio · 0.08 xG chance 1–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Udinese: 37%
Draw: 32%
Lazio: 30% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Udinese 1.27 0.85 -0.42

Lazio 1.14 1.83 +0.69

Lazio produced 0.69 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Udinese Lazio

Shots: 10; 19
On target: 6; 7
Inside the box: 6; 10
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.10
Open play xG: 0.77; 1.71
Set-piece xG: 0.00; 0.16
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.77 for Udinese and 1.86 for Lazio.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

29 shots · 2.64 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Udinese
Lazio
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Udinese

1.39 xG created 1.29 xGA

W 2.00 created, 0.83 conceded against Torino
W 2.47 created, 1.47 conceded against Cagliari
L 0.35 created, 0.45 conceded against Cremonese
L 0.37 created, 1.76 conceded against Napoli
D 2.14 created, 1.50 conceded against Como
W 0.98 created, 1.70 conceded against Monza

Lazio

0.91 xG created 1.12 xGA

W 0.80 created, 0.55 conceded against Cremonese
L 0.63 created, 1.23 conceded against Inter
L 0.69 created, 1.19 conceded against Roma
W 1.11 created, 1.56 conceded against Pisa
W 0.63 created, 1.78 conceded against Bologna
W 1.62 created, 0.42 conceded against Genoa

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Udinese: 0 won · 2 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged3 won2 lost

Won
Lost
Won
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Udinese against Lazio before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.95	+6.9%	Won
Udinese to win	2.80	+4.6%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.40	+3.1%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	2.30	+1.3%	Won
Draw	3.10	+0.1%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Udinese	37.4%	34.2%	+3.1 pp	2.68
Draw	32.3%	30.9%	+1.4 pp	3.10
Lazio	30.3%	34.9%	−4.5 pp	3.30

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	54.8%	48.0%	+6.8 pp	1.82
Both teams not to score	45.2%	52.0%	−6.8 pp	2.21
Over 1.5 goals	73.7%	68.2%	+5.5 pp	1.36
Under 1.5 goals	26.3%	31.8%	−5.5 pp	3.80
Over 2.5 goals	44.0%	41.3%	+2.8 pp	2.27
Under 2.5 goals	56.0%	58.7%	−2.8 pp	1.79

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Udinese sample: 20 matches
Lazio sample: 20 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.