Monday, 31/08/2026 at 18:30
Full timeAPO Levadiakos 0:2 Panathinaikos
Panathinaikos were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. They won 2–0. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.
Goals
- 3' Giannis Kosti (o.g.) Panathinaikos · 0.15 xG chance 0–1
- 77' Cyriel Dessers Panathinaikos · 0.10 xG chance 0–2
The model against the result
- APO Levadiakos
- 33%
- Draw
- 32%
- Panathinaikos
- 35% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 8
- 16
- On target
- 2
- 7
- Inside the box
- 6
- 11
- xG per shot
- 0.16
- 0.08
- Open play xG
- 0.34
- 0.94
- Set-piece xG
- 0.92
- 0.38
- Penalties
- —
- —
APO Levadiakos's shots add up to 1.26 xG and Panathinaikos's to 1.32; the published figures are 0.96 and 1.09.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
24 shots · 2.58 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- APO Levadiakos
- Panathinaikos
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.89 xG created 1.47 xGA
0.79 xG created 1.86 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged1 won6 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| APO Levadiakos to win | 5.25 | +71.7% | Lost |
| Panathinaikos not to score | 5.50 | +43.4% | Lost |
| Panathinaikos at most 1 goal | 2.00 | +28.5% | Lost |
| APO Levadiakos 2+ goals | 3.75 | +27.5% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.60 | +16.1% | Lost |
| APO Levadiakos to score | 1.57 | +13.9% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.90 | +5.0% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APO Levadiakos | 32.7% | 17.7% | +15.0 pp | 3.06 |
| Draw | 32.2% | 25.9% | +6.4 pp | 3.10 |
| Panathinaikos | 35.1% | 56.4% | −21.4 pp | 2.85 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APO Levadiakos to score | 72.5% | 58.9% | +13.6 pp | 1.38 |
| APO Levadiakos not to score | 27.5% | 41.1% | −13.6 pp | 3.64 |
| Panathinaikos to score | 73.9% | 82.8% | −8.9 pp | 1.35 |
| Panathinaikos not to score | 26.1% | 17.2% | +8.9 pp | 3.84 |
| Both teams to score | 55.5% | 52.0% | +3.5 pp | 1.80 |
| Both teams not to score | 44.5% | 48.0% | −3.5 pp | 2.25 |
| APO Levadiakos 2+ goals | 34.0% | 25.0% | +9.0 pp | 2.94 |
| APO Levadiakos at most 1 goal | 66.0% | 75.0% | −9.0 pp | 1.52 |
| Panathinaikos 2+ goals | 35.8% | 53.7% | −17.9 pp | 2.80 |
| Panathinaikos at most 1 goal | 64.2% | 46.3% | +17.9 pp | 1.56 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.2% | 75.0% | −0.8 pp | 1.35 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25.8% | 25.0% | +0.8 pp | 3.88 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.7% | 50.0% | −5.3 pp | 2.24 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.3% | 50.0% | +5.3 pp | 1.81 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- APO Levadiakos sample
- 20 matches
- Panathinaikos sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 8 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 8 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.